畜产品价格动态溢出效应研究——基于羊肉市场批发价格数据的分析  

Study on the Dynamic Spillover Effect of Livestock Product Prices——Analysis based on wholesale price data of lamb market

作　　者：李珍[1] 赵慧峰[1] IZhen;ZHAO Huifeng

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2024年第1期85-89,213,共6页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：河北省社科基金课题“河北省肉羊产业专业化,市场化,规模化发展路径研究”(HB19YJ019)。

摘　　要：准确衡量畜产品价格波动及其周期性特征,有助于稳定畜产品市场和促进畜牧业高质量发展。本文以2000年1月-2022年10月我国羊肉市场价格为研究对象,采用频谱的方差分解,分别从长、中、短期计算羊肉价格动态溢出效应。结果表明:从全国市场价格波动溢出效应来看,羊肉价格波动在羊肉主产区主要表现为正向溢出效应;在羊肉主销区主要表现为负向溢出效应。从不同区域动态溢出效应来看,我国羊肉市场短期价格波动溢出效应大于中长期;在羊肉主产区,外部突发事件造成的价格波动主要表现为中长期溢出效应增加;而在羊肉主销区,突发事件造成的价格波动主要表现为短期溢出效应增加。因此,政府应通过建立畜产品市场价格监测预警机制,平抑主销区市场短期价格波动;对优势产区合理规划,增加主产区市场长期供给能力,以确保畜产品市场健康稳定发展。Accurately measuring the price fluctuations and cyclical characteristics of livestock products can help stabilize the livestock product market and promote high-quality development of animal husbandry.This article takes the price of lamb in China's market from January 2000 to October 2022 as the research object,and uses spectral variance decomposition to calculate the dynamic spillover effects of lamb prices in the long-,medium-,and short-term.Results show that,from the perspective of spillover effects of price fluctuations in the national market,the price fluctuations of lamb mainly exhibit positive spillover effects in the main lamb producing areas;The main manifestation in the main sales areas of lamb is negative spillover effects.From the perspective of dynamic spillover effects in different regions,the short-term price fluctuation spillover effects in China's lamb market are greater than those in the medium-to long-term;In the main lamb producing areas,price fluctuations caused by external emergencies are mainly manifested as an increase in medium-and long-term spillover effects;While in the main sales areas of lamb,the price fluctuations caused by unexpected events mainly manifest as an increase in short-term spillover effects.Therefore,the government should establish a monitoring and early warning mechanism for the prices of livestock products in the market to suppress short-term price fluctuations in the main sales areas;Reasonably plan advantageous production areas and increase the long-term supply capacity of the main production area market to ensure the healthy and stable development of the livestoKcke ypwroodrudcst market.

关 键 词：畜产品价格 价格溢出效应 价格波动 频谱分析 方差分解 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]