基于CPI数据的我国价格总水平分析:2023年回顾及2024年展望  

Analysis of China's Price Level Based on CPI Data:Review of 2023 and Outlook for 2024

作　　者：王双进 崔福鑫 孙淑敏 WANG Shuangjin;CUI Fuxin;SUN Shumin

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学管理学院 [2]天津商业大学会计学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2024年第1期90-95,214,共7页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家统计局项目“农业数字文化产业赋能智慧乡村的统计监测及多元引育路径研究”(2023LY005);教育部人文社科后期资助项目“‘双碳’目标下制造业ESG责任履行对企业绩效的多维影响机制研究”(22JHQ095);教育部春晖计划项目“开放合作范式下涉农科技企业数字化协同创新机制研究”(HZKY20220605)。

摘　　要：着力扩大国内需求,激发有潜能的消费,保持价格总水平平稳运行,对于推动我国经济进一步回升向好具有重要意义。首先,从不同层面分析2023年CPI运行特征及背后原因;接着,从粮食价格稳中有升、生猪价格低位回升、上下游产品价格传导、翘尾因素、国际市场价格影响等五个方面,分析研判2024年CPI走势变化。研究发现:(1)2023年CPI涨幅比上年明显缩小,CPI八大类价格“六涨一平一降”,猪牛羊肉价格降幅扩大,旅游价格涨幅扩大;(2)粮食价格稳中有升、生猪价格低位回升、国际市场价格波动,是影响2024年CPI上涨的主要因素;(3)上游产品价格持续下跌减缓下游产品价格上涨压力、翘尾因素,是影响2024年CPI下降的主要影响因素。针对CPI运行走势及其影响因素,从财政货币政策协调配合、民生商品保供稳价、改善房地产市场调控、密切关注全球经济形势等方面提出政策建议。Focusing on expanding domestic demand,stimulating potential consumption,and maintaining a stable overall price level is crucial for further boosting China's economic recovery and improvement.Firstly,the characteristics and underlying reasons for the CPI's performance in 2023 are analyzed from various perspectives.Subsequently,the trends and changes in the CPI for 2024 are assessed based on five aspects:stable yet rising grain prices,low but recovering pork prices,upstream and downstream price transmission,tail effects,and international market price influences.The research findings indicate that the CPI growth rate in 2023 significantly narrowed compared to the previous year,with prices of the eight major CPI categories showing“six increases,one stability,and one decrease.”The price declines for pork,beef,and mutton expanded,while tourism prices saw an increased rise.Stable yet rising grain prices,low but recovering pork prices,and fluctuations in international market prices are the main factors influencing the rise in CPI for 2024.The sustained decline in upstream product prices,which alleviates the upward pressure on downstream product prices,along with tail effects,are the primary factors contributing to the decline in CPI for 2024.In response to the trends and influencing factors of CPI,suggestions are made in terms of coordinating fiscal and monetary policies,ensuring the supply and stable prices of daily necessities,improving real estate market regulation,and closely monitoring the global economic situation.

关 键 词：CPI PPI 生猪价格 消费复苏 保供稳价 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]