基于Markov-PLUS模型的石羊河流域土地利用及生态系统服务价值模拟  

Simulation of land use and ecosystem service value in Shiyang River Basin based on Markov-PLUS model

作　　者：金一诺 黄银洲[1] 尤凤[1,2] 郭丽英 JIN Yinuo;HUANG Yinzhou;YOU Feng;GUO Liying(College of Earth and Environment Science,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000;Gansu Institute of Natural Resources Planning and Research,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州730000 [2]甘肃省自然资源规划研究院,兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2024年第5期130-139,共10页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41971195)资助。

摘　　要：石羊河流域作为我国典型内陆河流域,是西部地区的重要生态屏障。文中基于Markov-PLUS模型对石羊河流域2030年自然发展、生态保护、城镇建设情景下的土地利用格局及生态系统服务价值进行模拟。结果表明:1)2000-2020年石羊河流域土地利用转移总面积为4670.87km^(2),主要发生在草地、未利用地、人造地表之间。2)三种情景土地利用模拟结果各异。自然发展情景下水域、湿地面积减少,生态保护情景下林地、灌木地大幅增加,城镇建设情景下人造地表大量扩张,耕地、草地显著减少。3)研究区2000、2010、2020年ESV分别为486.16亿元、491.1亿元、489.86亿元,呈先升后降趋势;2030年自然发展、生态保护、城镇建设三种情景下ESV分别为490.06亿元、503.29亿元、498.28亿元,较2020年不同程度增加。4)研究区ESV强度自上游到下游递减,生态保护情景下ESV增加和城镇建设情景下ESV减少主要集中在中部走廊城镇建设区外围和西南部林草区。未来石羊河流域应不断巩固前期治理成效,持续推动生态建设。As a typical inland river basin in China,the Shiyang River Basin serves as a crucial ecological barrier in the western region.In this paper,the Markov-PLUS model and ecosystem service value(ESV)calculation method were used to simulate the land use patterns and ESVs in the Shiyang River Basin in 2030 under the business-as-usual scenario,ecological conservation scenario and urban construction scenario.The results showed that:1)The land use transfer area in the Shiyang River Basin from 2000 to 2020 was 4670.87km²,it mainly occurred between grassland,unused land and artificial surfaces.2)The results of land use simulation under three scenarios are different.Under the business-as-usual scenario,the area of waters and wetland decrease.Under the ecological conservation scenario,the area of forest and shrub land increase significantly.Under the urban construction scenario,artificial surfaces expand greatly,and the area of cultivated land and grassland shows a decreasing trend.3)The ESV of the study area was 48.616 billion yuan,49.11 billion yuan and 48.986 million yuan in 2000,2010 and 2020,with the trend of increasing and then decreasing.The ESV will be 49.006 billion yuan,50.329 billion yuan and 49.828 billion yuan in 2030,under the three scenarios of business-as-usual,ecological conservation and urban construction,increasing to different degrees compared with 2020.4)The ESV of the study area decreases from upstream to downstream.The increase of ESV under the ecological conservation scenario and the decrease of ESV under the urban construction scenario are mainly concentrated in the surroundings of urban construction areas in central corridor and the forest and grassland areas in the southwest.In the future,it should consolidate the achievements of previous governance and promote sustainable ecological construction in the Shiyang River Basin.

关 键 词：PLUS模型 土地利用变化 生态系统服务价值 多情景模拟 石羊河流域 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]