国内供应链摩擦、中间品进口与生产率进步  

Domestic Supply Chain Friction,Imports of Intermediate Goods and Productivity Progress

作　　者：刘卉 王永进[2] LIU Hui;WANG Yongjin

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济与社会发展研究院 [2]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2024年第4期103-120,共18页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“数字经济赋能全球价值链韧性提升的理论与实践研究”(22&ZD074);中央高校基本科研业务费青年教师研究项目“国内供应链摩擦、中间品进口与生产率进步”(63232161);南开大学文科发展基金项目“双碳目标约束下中国能源偏向型技术进步的形成机制与经济效应研究”(ZB22BZ03ZZ)。

摘　　要：如何破除由于地区封锁所导致的供应链摩擦,并形成国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局是中国进入高质量发展阶段的必然要求。本文提出了一个测度企业国内市场供应链摩擦的量化评估框架,并通过动态结构模型考察了国内市场供应链摩擦对企业进口决策和生产率进步的影响。研究发现:(1)与国企相比,民营企业在国内中间品市场面临更高的供应链摩擦,而且该现象在中西部地区更为明显;(2)国内供应链摩擦与进口产品质量之间存在显著的负向关系;(3)对无论何种所有制企业而言,其进口中间投入品质量和种类的提高所产生的即时静态收益,均显著高于生产率演变所引致的滞后动态收益;(4)反事实分析表明,民营企业面临的高供应链摩擦显著抑制了其生产率增长。通过对国内的供应链摩擦进行重塑,可以使民营企业的长期生产率、进口参与率以及企业价值分别提高8.48%、16.04%和9.24%,这为推动供应链的优化升级提供了全新的思路。How to smooth the friction of supply chain caused by regional blockade,and form a new development pattern in which domestic and international dual circulations promote each other is an inevitable requirement for China to step into high quality development.This paper proposes a quantitative evaluation framework to measure supply chain friction in the domestic market,then examine the effects of supply chain friction in the domestic market on firms'import decisions and productivity progress by using dynamic structural modeling.The results show:(1)private enterprises face higher supply chain friction in the domestic intermediate goods market,and this phenomenon is more obvious in the central and western regions.(2)Domestic supply chain friction and imported product quality present negative relationship significantly.(3)The immediate static returns of enterprises are significantly higher than the lagged dynamic returns for all kinds of ownership enterprises.(4)The counterfactual analysis shows that the high supply chain friction faced by private enterprises significantly inhibits theirs productivity growth.By reshaping the domestic supply chain friction,the long-term productivity,import participation rate and enterprise value of private enterprises can be increased by 8.48%,16.04%and 9.24%respectively.The findings above provide a new way of thinking for optimization the supply chain.

关 键 词：供应链摩擦 中间品进口 生产率进步 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]