1990—2019年中国归因于空腹高血糖的缺血性心脏病疾病负担趋势分析和未来趋势预测  

Trend and future trend analysis of ischemic heart disease burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose in China from 1990 to 2019

作　　者：黄愿 李燕玲[2] 鄢文婷 王刚[3] 王博雯[2] 谢萍[2] HUANG Yuan;LI Yanling;YAN Wenting;WANG Gang;WANG Bowen;XIE Ping(The First Clinical Medical College,Gansu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Lanzhou,Gansu Province 730000,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]甘肃中医药大学第一临床医学院,甘肃省兰州730000 [2]甘肃省人民医院心内一科,甘肃省兰州730000 [3]兰州大学第一临床医学院

出　　处：《中国慢性病预防与控制》2024年第3期176-182,共7页Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金(22JR5RA665);甘肃省科技计划项目(20YF3WA011);兰州市人才创新创业项目(2018-RC-72)。

摘　　要：目的分析1990—2019年中国归因于空腹高血糖(HFPG)的缺血性心脏病(IHD)疾病负担状况和长期趋势,并预测2020—2034年的变化趋势,为中国IHD防治措施的制定提供依据。方法基于2019全球疾病负担(GBD2019)数据库,提取1990—2019年中国归因于HFPG的IHD疾病负担数据。运用R 4.2.3软件整理数据,采用死亡例数、年龄标化死亡率(ASMR)、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)、年龄标化DALY率(ASDR)评估疾病负担;应用Joinpoint 5.0.2回归软件和年龄-时期-队列模型分别分析疾病负担趋势和死亡率随年龄、时期和队列的时间变化趋势,采用R语言预测2020—2034年中国归因于HFPG的IHD死亡情况。结果2019年中国归因于HFPG的IHD疾病负担较1990年加重,死亡例数、ASMR、DALY和ASDR分别上升了258.95%、28.97%、190.26%、18.02%。从性别来看,男性群体疾病负担普遍较女性高;从年龄段来看,死亡例数和DALY的高峰值逐步向高龄人群移动,2019年除50~69岁外所有年龄段的死亡率和DALY率均较1990年提高,其中80~84和30~34岁年龄段增幅最为显著。Joinpoint回归分析显示,总体ASMR的平均年度变化百分比为0.68%,上升趋势有统计学意义(P<0.05),男性增长速度高于女性。年龄-时期-队列模型的死亡率净偏移值为1.09%(95%CI:0.90%~1.30%),年龄效应显示死亡率在72.5岁左右快速增长,时期效应和队列效应显示死亡率的相对危险度随年份大致呈上升趋势。预计2020—2034年,中国男性和女性归因于HFPG的IHD的ASMR可能将分别下降至22.90/10万、11.77/10万左右,男性和女性的死亡例数可能将分别上升至1389875、930853例左右。结论今后中国归因于HFPG的IHD疾病负担依旧严峻,应科学管控血糖,重点关注男性和老年群体,并预防疾病年轻化发展趋势。Objective To analyze the current status and long-term trend of ischemic heart disease(IHD)burden due to high fasting plasma glucose(HFPG)in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the trend from 2020 to 2034,and provide the basis for formulating the measures of IHD prevention and treatment.Methods On the basis of the Global Burden of Disease 2019(GBD2019)database,the disease burden data of IHD attributable to HFPG in China from1990 to 2019 were extracted.R 4.2.3 software was used to organize the data,,the number of deaths,age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),disability-adjusted life-years(DALY),and age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR)were used to evaluate the disease burden;the Joinpoint 5.0.2 regression software and the age-period-cohort model were used to analyze the disease burden trend and the change trend of mortality increasing with age or time of period and queue,and R language was used to predict the IHD mortality rates attributable to HFPG in China from 2020 to 2034.Results The disease burden of IHD attributed to HFPG of China in 2019 was higher than that in 1990,the number of death,ASMR,DALY,and ASDR increased 258.95%,28.97%,190.26%,and 18.02%,respectively.In terms of gender,the disease burden in males was generally higher than that in females.Regarding age groups,the peak values of death cases and DALY gradually shifted to higher age groups,with mortality and DALY rate increasing in 2019 compared to 1990 for all age groups except 50~69 age group,with the most significant increases in the 80~84 and 30-34 age groups.Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the overall average annual percent change of ASMR was 0.68%(P<0.05);the increase rate in males was higher than that in females.The net offset value of mortality in the age-period-cohort model was 1.09%(95%CI:0.90%-1.30%).The age effect indicated the rapid increase of the mortality rate around 72.5 years old,the period and cohort effects showed that the relative risk of mortality generally had an increasing trend with the year.Predication indicated that fro

关 键 词：空腹高血糖 缺血性心脏病 疾病负担 预测 

分 类 号：R542.2[医药卫生—心血管疾病]