户籍制度改革与城市居民消费倾向  

Household Registration System Reform and Urban Residents'Consumption Tendency

作　　者：田素华[1] 赵永晗 TIAN Su-hua;ZHAO Yong-han(School of Economics,Fudan University, 200433)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,200433

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2024年第5期69-85,共17页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划课题“对外开放促进市场经济发展的作用机制、影响因素和政府职能适应性调整”(批准号:2023BJL001)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：降低农村居民进城阻力的户籍制度改革,会如何影响城市居民的消费倾向呢?本文首先利用2012年户籍制度改革政策的外生冲击,结合微观流动人口动态监测数据,基于双重差分法识别户籍制度改革促进城市居民消费倾向提升的典型事实。随后构建并校准一个异质性主体开放经济动态一般均衡模型,区分农村户籍和城市户籍两类居民,考察户籍制度改革冲击降低农民工进城阻力,进而影响城市居民消费倾向的一般均衡机制。数值模拟结果显示,户籍制度改革冲击促使城市居民消费倾向提升,与典型事实相一致。进一步研究发现,资本调整成本作为重要的中间机制,在很大程度上影响了城市居民消费倾向对户籍制度改革冲击的反应:在资本调整成本较高时,户籍制度改革冲击将抬升城市居民的消费倾向;而在资本调整成本较低时,户籍制度改革冲击会压低城市居民的消费倾向。本文揭示了城乡融合背景下中国消费结构动态的深层机制,为理解户籍制度改革的经济效应提供了薪新的分析视角。How will the reform of the household registration system,which reduces the resistance of rural residents to enter the city,affect the consumption tendency of urban residents?This paper first utilizes the exogenous shock of the 2012 household registration system reform policy,combined with micro-level China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS)data,to identify the typical facts that the household registration system reform promotes the increase in urban residents'consumption tendency using the difference-in-differences(DID)method.This paper constructs and calibrates a heterogeneous agent open economy dynamic general equilibrium model,distinguishing rural and urban residents,and quantitatively analyzes the general equilibrium effect of the household registration system reform on urban residents'consumption tendency.The numerical simulation results show that the household registration system reform prompts an increase in urban residents'consumption tendency,which is consistent with the typical facts.Capital adjustment costs as an important mechanism can significantly affect the response of urban residents'consumption tendency to the household registration system reform.Under higher capital adjustment costs,the household registration system reform raises urban residents'consumption tendency;while under lower capital adjustment costs,the household registration system reform will suppress urban residents'consumption tendency.This paper reveals the underlying mechanism of the dynamic structure of consumption in China under the background of urban-rural integration,providing a new perspective for understanding the economic effects of the household registration system reform.

关 键 词：户籍制度改革 农民工 消费倾向 动态一般均衡 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]