油库抗震韧性动态评估模型  

Dynamic assessment model for seismic resilience of oil depot

作　　者：陈超 谭心鑫 王迪 李长俊[1] CHEN Chao;TAN Xinxin;WANG Di;LI Changjun(School of Petroleum Engineering,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;Safety and Security Science Group,Delft University of Technology,Delft,The Netherlands,2628 BX;China Oil&Gas Pipeline Network Group,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学石油与天然气工程学院,四川成都610500 [2]代尔夫特理工大学安全科学系,荷兰代尔夫特2628 BX [3]国家石油天然气管网集团,北京100028

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第4期87-92,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：四川省重点研发项目资助(2023YFS0412);英国劳氏基金资助(Sg3\100021)。

摘　　要：为解决油库面临地震时的安全管理问题,首先,将抗震韧性定义为油库为保持储存功能表现出的抵御地震破坏、减轻地震次生灾害、适应震后环境和震后快速恢复的能力,并量化油库抗震韧性表现出的4种能力,建立油库抗震韧性评估模型;其次,考虑到抵御阶段和减轻阶段的不确定性,基于动态蒙特卡罗法,定量评估油库抗震韧性,并获得油库的抗震韧性值;最后,以某地震区域油库为例,验证模型的有效性。结果表明:油库韧性能力的不确定性导致韧性值出现大幅波动;多米诺效应对油库韧性的影响较大,不可忽略;震源距离越远、断层滑移率越小,抗震韧性越高;远离活动断层、预测地震危害、减少应急响应时间等措施可提高抗震韧性。To address the safety management issues of oil depots in case of earthquakes,firstly,seismic resilience is defined as the ability of oil depots to maintain their storage functions in terms of resisting earthquake damage,mitigating secondary disasters,adapting to environments after earthquakes,and quickly recovering after earthquakes.Moreover,an assessment model for the seismic resilience of Oil depot is proposed by quantifying the four types of abilities.Secondly,a quantitative assessment of the seismic resilience of the oil depot is realized through a dynamic Monte Carlo method,considering the uncertainty of the resistance and mitigation stages,thereby obtaining the seismic resilience value.Finally,the performance of the proposed model is validated against the oil depot in an earthquake area.The results indicate that the uncertainty of the resilience ability of the oil depot results in a significant fluctuation in resilience values,and the domino effect has a significant influence on the oil depot's resilience and cannot be ignored.Moreover,the farther the earthquake source distance and the lower the fault slip rate lead to higher seismic resilience.The seismic resilience can be improved by staying away from active faults,predicting earthquake hazards,and reducing emergency response time.

关 键 词：油库 地震 安全韧性 抗震韧性 动态评估 评估模型 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]