采用云重心评判法的港口船舶溢油综合应急能力评价  

Evaluation of comprehensive emergency response capability for port ship oil spill with cloud gravity center evaluation method

作　　者：陈伟炯[1,2] 苏子薇 秦庭荣[1,2] 韩伟佳 汪侃 康与涛[2,4] CHEN Weijiong;SU Ziwei;QIN Tingrong;HAN Weijia;WANG Kan;KANG Yutao(Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;Oceanographic Public Safety Research Center,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;Institute of Logistics Science and Engineering,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;College of Ocean Science and Engineering,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [2]上海海事大学海洋公共安全研究中心,上海201306 [3]上海海事大学物流科学与工程研究院,上海201306 [4]上海海事大学海洋科学与工程学院,上海201306

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第4期183-190,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(52001196)。

摘　　要：为突破单环节评价港口船舶溢油应急能力的局限性,合理配置资源,采用云重心评判法全环节评估港口船舶溢油综合应急能力,面向应急准备、预警、行动、恢复全环节,参照人-机-环境-管理系统理论和国际国内规定,建立综合应急能力评价指标体系;针对传统评价指标因素未涉及模糊性和随机性的问题,用加权偏离度确定定性指标与定量数值间的转化关系;利用层次分析法(AHP)优化评价意见,弥补评价样本欠充分带来的精度缺陷;最后,以上海港为例,对船舶溢油综合应急能力评价作实证研究。结果表明:云重心评判法能合理评价港口船舶溢油综合应急能力,为健全和完备应急能力提供理论依据,为港口船舶溢油综合应急能力评价提供了一种新思路。To address the limitations of evaluating the emergency response capability of port ships for oil spills in a single stage and reasonably allocate resources,the cloud gravity center evaluation method was adopted to evaluate the comprehensive emergency response capability of port ships for oil spill.Facing the entire process of emergency preparedness,early warning,response and recovery,and referring to the theory of"man-machine-environment-management"system and international and domestic regulations,a comprehensive emergency response capability evaluation index system was established.To address the issue that the traditional evaluation indicators were not fuzzy and random,a weighted deviation degree was used to determine the transformation relationship between qualitative indicators and quantitative values.AHP was used to optimize evaluation opinions and compensate for accuracy deficiencies caused by insufficient evaluation samples.Finally,taking Shanghai Port as an example,an empirical study was conducted on the comprehensive emergency response capability evaluation of ship oil spills.The results show that the cloud gravity center evaluation method can reasonably evaluate the comprehensive emergency response capability of port ships for oil spills.This method provides a theoretical basis for improving and perfecting emergency response capability,and provides a new approach for the comprehensive emergency response capability evaluation of port ships for oil spills.

关 键 词：云重心评判法 港口船舶溢油 综合应急能力 指标体系 加权偏离度 层次分析法(AHP) 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学] U698.7[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]