飞行员应急处置能力评价模型  

Evaluation model of pilot emergency response capability

作　　者：王永刚[1] 马文婷 WANG Yonggang;MA Wenting(College of Safety Science&Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第4期199-206,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：中国民航局安全能力项目(ASSA2023-90)。

摘　　要：为提高飞行员在紧急情境下的应急处置能力,减少民航安全事故,基于决策模型和应激理论模型,分析飞行员任务过程,从飞行员运行安全能力和飞行员储备安全能力2个方面建立飞行员应急处置能力指标体系;运用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)建立包含安全运行能力B1和储备安全能力B2指标体系,结合专家意见确定二级指标的隶属度,得到飞行员应急处置能力的核心指标;通过证据推理(ER)算法合成民航安全领域相关专家综合评价飞行员应急处置能力的流程,并选取某航空公司2个机组飞行员进行实证分析。研究结果表明:评价飞行员应急处置能力模型很好地降低不确定性对评价结果的影响,从而显著提高评价结果的可靠性。In order to improve pilots'emergency response capability in emergency situations and reduce civil aviation safety accidents,the pilot task process was analyzed based on the decision-making model and stress theory model.The index system of pilot emergency response capability was established from the aspects of pilot operation safety capability and pilot reserve safety capability.FAHP was used to establish the index system including safety operation capability B 1 and reserve safety capability B 2,and the membership degree of the second-level indexes was determined by combing the expert opinions.Then,the core indicators of pilot emergency response capability were obtained.The comprehensive evaluation of pilot emergency response capability by experts in the field of civil aviation safety was integrated through the ER algorithm.2 crew pilots of an airline were selected for empirical analysis.The results of the study show that the proposed model can reduce the impact of uncertainty on evaluation results,thus significantly improving the reliability of the evaluation results.

关 键 词：飞行员 应急处置能力 运行安全能力 储备安全能力 模糊层次分析法(FAHP) 证据推理(ER)算法 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]