基于博弈论组合赋权-云模型的消防员训练损伤风险评估  

Risk assessment of firefighter training injury based on game theory combinatorial weighting and cloud model

作　　者：陈娜[1] 胡毅彤 袁英峰 秦向南 刘军 CHEN Na;HU Yitong;YUAN Yingfeng;QIN Xiangnan;LIU Jun(School of Mechanics and Safety Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou Henan 450001,China;Fire and Rescue Team in Henan Province,Zhengzhou Henan 450004,China;School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou Henan 450001,China;National Earthquake Response Support Service,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学力学与安全工程学院,河南郑州450001 [2]河南省消防救援总队,河南郑州450004 [3]郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南郑州450001 [4]中国地震应急搜救中心,北京100049

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第4期232-238,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3004405);中国职业安全健康协会创新创业项目(CXCY-2021-01);郑州大学基础研究培育基金资助(JC21532027)。

摘　　要：为降低消防员训练损伤发生率,从个人因素、环境因素和组织管理因素3个方面,提出包含19个指标的消防员训练损伤风险评估指标体系;采用Bonferroni有序加权平均算子(BON-OWA算子)修正层次分析法(AHP)的误差,获得各指标的主观权重;引用基于指标相关性的权重确定法(CRITIC)确定各指标的客观权重;基于博弈论组合赋权法确定各指标的组合权重;引入云模型理论,建立消防员训练损伤风险评估模型,并以河南省某消防救援大队消防员的训练为例,验证该模型的科学性。结果表明:训练装备的战技性能状况指标对消防员的训练损伤风险等级影响最大;该风险评估模型通过数据处理,可以确定消防员训练损伤风险等级;案例中,消防员在5种不同情景下的训练损伤风险等级均为一般风险,这与模糊综合评价法所得结果一致。In order to reduce the incidence of firefighter training injury,a firefighter training injury risk assessment index system containing 19 indexes was proposed from three aspects:individual factors,environmental factors and organizational management factors.The BON-OWA operator was used to correct the error of analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to obtain the subjective weight,and the criteria importance through intercriteria correlation(CRITIC)method was used to determine the objective weight.The game theory combinatorial weighting method was used to integrate the subjective weight and the objective weight to determine the combined weight.The risk assessment model of firefighter training injury was established based on the cloud model theory.The scientificity of the model was verified by the firefighter training in a fire rescue brigade in Henan province.The results show that the combat equipment performance condition index has the greatest impact on the risk level of firefighter training injury;The risk assessment model can determine the risk level of firefighter training injury by data processing.In the case,risk levels of firefighter training injury under five different scenarios are all general risk,which is consistent with the risk level obtained by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.

关 键 词：博弈论组合赋权 云模型 消防员训练损伤 风险评估 Bonferroni有序加权平均算子(BON-OWA算子) 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]