考虑生产率差异的地区购买力平价试算研究  

A Study on the Trial Calculation of Regional Purchasing Power Parity Considering Productivity Differences

作　　者：张迎春 魏信 Zhang Yingchun;Wei Xin(School of Economics,Qingdao University)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院经济统计学系 [2]青岛大学经济学院

出　　处：《调研世界》2024年第6期3-14,共12页The World of Survey and Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“数字赋能中国全球价值链攀升的路径与测度研究”(21&ZD148)的资助。

摘　　要：世界银行购买力平价(PPP)未全面考虑不同地区生产率差异的影响,可能存在“高估”欠发达地区调整GDP的问题。本文从地区全要素生产率(TFP)角度入手,将经济联动矩阵的构建思路与PPP剔除生产率因素的现实需要同时体现在空间权重矩阵设计上,尝试对世界银行方法进行改进。以我国农产品价格数据为例的仿真研究表明:第一,不同省份地区TFP差异较大,对地区PPP影响显著;第二,农产品价格存在正向空间关联,即“高—高”集聚现象;第三,剔除生产率影响后,地区基本类PPP呈现出西部省份最高、东部省份次之、中部省份最低的价格分布特征;第四,修正后的欠发达地区PPP数值整体提高,在“低估欠发达地区价格水平、高估欠发达地区GDP”方面的问题得到改善。The purchasing power parity(PPP)officially measured by the World Bank does not take into account the impact of productivity differences in different regions,and there may be a risk of overestimating the actual GDP of underdeveloped regions.This article starts from the perspective of regional total factor productivity(TFP),and reflects the construction idea of economic linkage matrix and the practical need for PPP to eliminate productivity factors in the design of spatial weight matrix,attempting to improve the official method.The simulation study using agricultural product price data in China as an example shows that:firstly,there are significant differences in TFP among different provinces and regions,which has a significant impact on regional PPP;Secondly,there is a positive spatial correlation between agricultural product prices,namely the phenomenon of“high-high”agglomeration;Thirdly,after excluding the impact of productivity,regional basic heading PPPs exhibit the highest price distribution in western provinces,followed by eastern provinces,and the lowest in central provinces;Fourthly,the revised PPP values in underdeveloped areas have overall increased,and the problem of“underestimating the price level and overestimating the GDP of underdeveloped areas”has been improved.

关 键 词：地区PPP 价格水平差异 生产率 SCPD模型 空间权重矩阵 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济]