我国安全生产事故季节变动、循环与不规则波动规律研究  

Research on seasonal changes,cycles and irregular fluctuation patterns of safety production accidents in China

作　　者：刘晨君 李瑞婧 李博涵 LIU Chenjun;LI Ruijing;LI Bohan(School of Management Engineering,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;School of Mine Safety,North China Institute of Science and Technology,Yanjiao 065201,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学管理工程学院,北京100070 [2]华北科技学院矿山安全学院,北京东燕郊065201

出　　处：《华北科技学院学报》2024年第3期112-118,共7页Journal of North China Institute of Science and Technology

基　　金：中国高校产学研创新基金(2021LDA11003);河北省高等教育学会高等教育科学研究规划课题(GJXHZ2021-39)。

摘　　要：为了有效减少安全生产事故,更好地指导事故防控政策的制定与实施。文章运用统计学长期趋势剔除法和剩余法基于非新冠疫情的年份数据,对我国2015—2019年各省市、各行业的3739起安全生产事故数进行了季节变动、循环波动与不规则波动分析。事故季节变动研究结果表明:我国安全生产事故呈“一淡二旺一平”的季节变动规律,季节指数分别为:89.67%,106.98%,102.67%,100.69%。事故循环波动研究结果表明:我国安全生产事故没有固定的循环周期,但始终处于事故扩张期和事故收缩期两种不稳定状态,波峰和波谷时间分别占33.3%和66.7%;事故不规则波动研究结果表明:我国安全生产事故约72.22%时间是受到“不规则变动”的影响,事故受不规则正影响每年约1.11季、负影响1.78季和无影响1.11季。最后,基于我国安全事故变动规律,提出了一些针对性的事故防范措施,对后疫情时代我国的安全生产管理工作提供借鉴。In order to effectively reduce production safety accidents and better guide the formulation and implementation of accident prevention and control policies.Using the statistical long-term trend exclusion method and the residual method based on the yearly data of the non-new crown epidemic,the article analyzes the seasonal changes,cyclical fluctuation and irregular fluctuation of the number of 3,739 work safety acci⁃dents in various provinces,cities and industries from 2015 to 2019.The results of the seasonal variation of accidents show that the seasonal variation of safety accidents in China shows the seasonal variation pattern of"one low,two high and one flat",and the seasonal indices are 89.67%,106.98%,102.67%and 100.69%re⁃spectively.Accident cycle fluctuation research results show that:China′s safety production accidents do not have a fixed cycle,but always in the accident expansion period and accident contraction period of two unstable state,the peak and trough time accounted for 33.3%and 66.7%;accident irregular fluctuation research results show that:China′s safety production accidents are affected by the"irregular change"of 72.22%of the time,the accident is affected by the"irregular change"of the seasonal variation pattern.The results of the study ir⁃regular fluctuation of accidents show that about 72.22%of the time of safety production accidents in China are affected by"irregular changes",accidents are positively affected by irregular positive impact of about 1.11 seasons per year,the negative impact of 1.78 seasons and no impact of 1.11 seasons.Finally,based on the changing law of safety accidents in China,some targeted accident prevention measures are proposed to provide reference for China′s safety production management in the post epidemic era.

关 键 词：事故预防 季节指数 循环波动 事故扩张期 不规则波动 

分 类 号：X92[环境科学与工程—安全科学]