普惠型商业医疗保险参保意愿影响因素分析——基于Logistic回归和CHAID决策树模型  

Analysis of the Influencing Factors to Willingness to Participate in Universal Commercial Medical Insurance Based on Logistic Regression and CHAID Decision Tree Models

作　　者：赵俊娟 李菲 Zhao Junjuan(College of Management,Shanxi Medical University,Taiyuan,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]山西医科大学管理学院,山西太原030001

出　　处：《中国卫生事业管理》2024年第5期523-528,共6页Chinese Health Service Management

基　　金：山西省科技战略研究专项“山西省健康养老服务PPP项目综合评价体系研究:以利益相关者为视角”(202104031402110);北京健康促进会委托课题“多层次医疗保障体系建设:基本医保个人账户在商业补充医疗保险中影响的研究”(2022GL0601);山西省医疗保障局研究项目“山西省门诊慢特病制度运行情况评估”(2023GL0519)。

摘　　要：目的:探讨普惠型商业医疗保险参保意愿影响因素,为普惠型商业医疗保险的研究和参保干预提供理论依据。方法:通过问卷对普惠型商业医疗保险参保意愿进行调研,利用Logistic回归和CHAID决策树模型,对人群参保意愿影响因素展开分析,并对比两种模型的预测效果。结果:本次调查共发放450份问卷,有效问卷率92.22%,其中,61.45%有参保意愿。Logistic回归模型分析结果显示,政府支持力度、对产品了解程度、年龄、是否购买商业健康保险、家庭人均年收入为影响因素(P<0.05),AUC为0.900;CHAID决策树模型分析结果显示,政府支持力度、对当地产品了解程度、保险机构宣传力度、家庭人均年收入为影响因素(P<0.05),AUC为0.891。结论:半数以上人群具有参保意愿,需要采取针对性干预措施,转化参保意愿为实际参保行为,进一步提升参保率;Logistic回归和CHAID决策树两种模型均可有效识别参保意愿影响因素,将政府支持力度、对产品了解程度、家庭人均年收入识别为关键因素,年龄、是否购买商业健康保险、保险公司宣传力度也对参保意愿产生一定影响;两种模型的结合可为普惠型商业医疗保险的深入研究和参保干预提供有益指导,促进普惠型商业医疗保险可持续发展。Objective To explore the influencing factors of the willingness to participate in universal commercial health insurance and provide a theoretical basis for research and participation interventions in universal commercial health insurance.Methods Through the questionnaire research on the willingness to participate in universal commercial medical insurance,Logistic regression and CHAID decision tree model were used to analyze the factors affecting the willingness to participate in insurance and compare the prediction effect of these two models.Results A total of 450 questionnaires were distributed,with a valid questionnaire rate of 92.22%,of which 61.45%had the intention to participate in the insurance.Logistic regression analysis showed that the governmental support,degree of understanding the product,age,whether to buy commercial health insurance,and the annual per capita income of the family were influencing factors(P<0.05),with an AUC of 0.900.The results of the CHAID decision tree model analysis showed that government support,degree of knowledge about local products,strength of insurance organizations'publicity,and the annual per capita household income were the influencing factors(P<0.05),with an AUC of 0.891.Conclusion More than half of the population is willing to be insured,which needs to be converted into actual insured behavior by targeted interventions.Both logistic regression and CHAID decision tree models can effectively identify the factors influencing the willingness to participate in insurance,and identify governmental support,product knowledge,and per capita annual household income as the key factors,and also take age,whether or not to buy commercial health insurance,and the strength of insurance companies'publicity as certain impact.The combination of these two models can provide guidance for in-depth research and participation intervention of universal commercial medical insurance,and promote the sustainable development of universal commercial medical insurance.

关 键 词：普惠型商业医疗保险 参保意愿 影响因素 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险] R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]