中国车用空调制冷剂减排情景预测及管控建议  

SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF HYDROFLUOROCARBONS EMISSION REDUCTION AND CONTROL STRATEGY FOR CHINA’S MOBILE AIR-CONDITIONING SECTOR

作　　者：彭頔 王帅滨 马冬[1,2] 纪亮[1,2] 王军方[1,2] 尹航[1,2] PENG Di;WANG Shuaibin;MA Dong;JI Liang;WANG Junfang;YIN Hang(State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Vehicle Emission Control and Simulation,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Science,Beijing 100012,China;Vehicle Emission Control Center,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Science,Beijing 100012,China;China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.,Ltd,Chongqing 401122,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院国家环境保护机动车污染控制与模拟重点实验室,北京100012 [2]中国环境科学研究院机动车排污监控中心,北京100012 [3]中国汽车工程研究院股份有限公司,重庆401122

出　　处：《环境工程》2024年第3期233-242,共10页Environmental Engineering

基　　金：城市和区域交通污染综合治理方案和示范实践(2022YFC3703604)

摘　　要：中国是当前全球最大的氢氟碳化物(HFCs)生产国和消费国,生产量和出口量均占全球的1/2以上。HFCs是重要的空调制冷剂,也是强效温室气体。建立了车用空调制冷剂排放清单及预测模型,以HFCs国际履约和碳达峰碳中和为目标,结合车用空调制冷剂排放管控现状、汽车保有量发展趋势等,对基准情景、强化情景和国际对标情景下的车用空调制冷剂排放量和消费量进行了预测分析。结合行业发展和管控目标,对不同减排路径进行了分析,提出了未来我国车用空调HFCs减排的管控建议。China is currently the world’s largest producer and consumer of hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs),accounting for more than half of the world’s production and exports.HFCs are both robust greenhouse gases and important air-conditioning refrigerants.This study establishes a mobile air-conditioning(MAC)refrigerant emission inventory and forecasting model based on industrial development and domestic and international literature research.Taking international commitments on HFCs and carbon neutrality as the targets,and combining the current situation and management of MAC refrigerant emissions and the development trend of the automobile population,the baseline scenario,enhanced scenario,and international scenario of MAC refrigerant emissions and consumption were predicted and analyzed.Combined with the development of the industry and the control objectives,different emission reduction paths are analyzed,and the future control suggestion of HFCs emission reduction in China’s mobile air-conditioners is put forward.

关 键 词：车用空调 氢氟碳化物 排放清单 碳中和 制冷剂 情景预测 

分 类 号：TB6[一般工业技术—制冷工程]