预期效用视角下国产电影档期选择的偏差与解决路径--基于实证分析的结论  

The Problems and Solutions of Schedule Selection for Chinese Domestic Films from the Perspective of Expected Utility Theory:An Empirical Analysis

作　　者：张辉锋[1,2,3] 景恬 Zhang Huifeng;Jing Tian

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学新闻学院 [2]中国人民大学新闻与社会发展研究中心 [3]中国人民大学传媒经济研究所

出　　处：《新闻与传播研究》2024年第4期114-125,128,共13页Journalism & Communication

基　　金：北京市哲学社会科学重点项目“人工智能时代网络舆情管理与首都治理现代化研究”(项目编号:20XCA005)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：我国国产电影在档期选择中存在明显的旺季偏好,并造成淡季消费者“无片可看”、旺季不正当竞争行为加剧、出现“天价票”有损消费者福利等问题。而这种偏好其实不符合电影市场需求实际,因实践中不一定淡季消费者就观影意愿弱、总需求低。而之所以出现这种选择偏差,是因为国产电影在档期选择时存在非理性预期,对内生需求预估不准确、对外生因素的激发作用有所忽视以及简化风险预期、低估竞争风险等。要解决这个问题,需要构建统筹考虑效用、风险的理性分析框架,即基于现实淡旺季观影数据构建观照外生因素的效用预估模型和兼顾供给数量与质量的风险预估模型,进而建立一套科学反映档期需求影响因素的模型。Domestic films in China show a distinct preference for peak seasons when choosing release dates.This preference has several consequences,such as a lack of films during off-peak seasons,intensified unfair competition during peak seasons,and the emergence of"sky-high ticket prices"that harm consumer interests.However,this preference does not align with the actual demands of the film market.It is not necessarily the case that consumers have weaker movie-watching intentions and lower total demand during off-peak seasons.This bias in release date choice is due to irrational expectations,which include inaccurate estimates of endogenous demand,neglecting the stimulating effect of exogenous factors,simplifying risk expectations,and underestimating competitive risks.To solve this problem,a rational analytical framework that considers both utility and risk needs to be established.This framework involves building,first,a utility expectation model that considers exogenous factors based on real data of movie-watching during off-peak and peak seasons,and second,a prediction model that takes into account supply quantity and quality.In this way,a scientific model that reflects the factors that influence release date demand can be established.

关 键 词：国产电影 档期选择 非理性预期 

分 类 号：J905[艺术—电影电视艺术]