气候变化对农户农地流转行为的影响--来自全国农村固定观察点的证据  

The Impact of Climate Change on Farmland Transfer Behavior:Evidence from the National Rural Fixed Observation Points Survey

作　　者：刘东 陈景帅 冯晓龙 赵启然 司伟[1,2] LIU Dong;CHEN Jingshuai;FENG Xiaolong;ZHAO Qiran;SI Wei

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院 [2]中国农业大学全球食物经济与政策研究院

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2024年第5期40-61,共22页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目“全球背景下优化中国农业补贴促进农业食物系统转型”(编号:72061147002)、国家自然科学基金面上项目“极端气候事件的牧户行为效应与发展韧性研究”(编号:72373145);国家大豆产业技术体系专项建设经费(编号:CARS-04-04A)的资助。

摘　　要：气候变化深刻影响着农户的生产要素配置行为,然而,尚未有研究提供气候变化与农户农地流转行为之间因果关系的证据。本文使用全国农村固定观察点2010-2020年的农户数据,系统考察气候变化对农户农地流转行为的影响。研究发现:气候变暖和极端天气事件频率增加均会对农户农地流转行为产生显著影响,气候变暖和极端天气事件频率提高整体上增加了农地转出概率和规模、减少了农地转入概率和规模。进一步分析发现,不利的气温和降水条件促使小农户增加农地转出、减少农地转入,但规模农户并不倾向于转出农地,反而会通过增加农地转入面积提升气候变化适应能力。气候变暖和极端天气事件频率增加会促使兼业程度较高的农户转出农地,但对纯农户农地转出行为的影响较小。据此,本文认为,应该重视气候变化对农户农地经营决策调整的影响,优化农业支持政策,进一步增强不同类型农户应对气候风险的能力。Climate change profoundly affects farmers'allocation behavior of production factors,yet there is lack of causal evidence between climate change and farmland transfer.This study utilizes household data from the national rural fixed observation points spanning from 2010 to 2020,and systematically examines the impact of climate change on farmers'behavior regarding farmland transfer.The findings reveal that both climate warming and increased frequency of extreme weather significantly affect farmers'farmland transfer behavior,manifested by increased probabilities and scales of farmland transfer out,and decreased probabilities and scales of farmland transfer in.Further analysis indicates that adverse temperature and precipitation conditions notably induce small-scale farmers to transfer out farmland and reduce the likelihood of transferring in,whereas large-scale farmers are not inclined to transfer out farmland and instead enhance their climate change adaptability by acquiring additional farmland.Climate warming and increased frequency of extreme weather prompt diversified farmers to transfer out farmland,but their impact on purely agricultural farmers'farmland transfer out is not evident.Based on these findings,this study emphasizes the importance of considering the influence of climate change on farmers'farmland management decisions,optimizing agricultural support policies,and further enhancing the ability of different types of farmers to cope with climate risks.

关 键 词：气候变化 农地流转 经营规模 兼业化 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]