Will the State-owned Capital Transfer Policy Enhance the Sustainability of the Urban Employee Basic Pension Insurance Fund in China?  

作　　者：Jia Wang Huan Liu Mei Li Han Li 

机构地区：[1]School of Economics,Xiamen University,China [2]School of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,China [3]School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University,China

出　　处：《China & World Economy》2024年第3期98-129,共32页中国与世界经济（英文版）

基　　金：supported financially by the National Social ScienceFund of China(No.21CZZ028).

摘　　要：To analyze the efect of the state-owned capital transfer policy on the sustainability of China's urban employee basic pension insurance fund(CUEBPIF),this study develops an actuarial model for pension insurance.The results reveal the following:(i)Without policy intervention,the CUEBPIF would face a deficit in 2027 and a cumulative shortfall of RMB207.44 trillion by 2050,and the proportion of fiscal subsidies for the CUEBPIF in the total fiscal expenditure would increase to 12.86 percent in 2050.(i)Based on a delayed retirement policy,the transfer of 10 percent of state-owned capital can delay the onset of the fund deficit by 6 years,and the accumulated shortfall in 2050 would fall to RMB39.42 trillion,and the proportion of fiscal subsidies would decrease by I1.77 percentage points.(ii)The state-owned capital transfer policy can improve the sustainability of the CUEBPIF and reduce the burden of enterprise social security contributions when the transfer ratio increases to 20 percent.

关 键 词：burden of enterprise social security contributions delayed retirement policy state-owned capital transfer policy sustainability of basic pension insurance fund 

分 类 号：F842[经济管理—保险]