促进还是抑制?子女随迁对女性流动人口就业收入的影响  

Facilitation or Inhibition?The Impact of Migrant Children on Female Migrants' Employment Income

作　　者：魏万青[1,2,3] 蒋林立 Wei Wanqing;Jiang Linli

机构地区：[1]广西大学区域社会治理创新研究中心 [2]广西发展战略研究院 [3]广西大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《社会发展研究》2024年第2期44-66,M0004,共24页Journal of Social Development

基　　金：广西高校人文社会科学重点研究基地科研项目“大变局下经济社会转型与新型城镇化推进路径研究”(项目编号:JDZD202203;主持人:魏万青);广西大学应用经济学学科交叉科研项目“数字化大变局下的机遇、挑战与劳动力市场的新特征”(项目编号:2023JJJXA06;主持人:魏万青)研究成果。

摘　　要：本文基于2018年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测调查(CMDS)数据估计了子女随迁对女性流动人口就业收入的影响,采用赫克曼两步法和工具变量法,并基于内生转换模型,讨论了子女随迁和子女留守两种情境对女性流动人口就业收入的影响。实证结果表明,子女随迁对女性流动人口的就业收入存在显著的负效应。在反事实框架下,本文考察了留守儿童选择随迁与随迁儿童选择留守两种情况给女性流动人口就业收入带来的影响。研究发现留守儿童选择随迁的处理效应高于随迁儿童选择留守的处理效应。这说明留守儿童若选择随迁,对女性流动人口的就业收入存在更高的潜在负向影响。最后,本文通过异质性分析发现,子女随迁对女性流动人口带来的负向收入影响,在西部地区、服务业、其他行业和高技能层次的女性群体中更高。Drawing upon data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS)2018,this study assesses the impact of migrant children on female migrants'employment income.Employing Heckman's two-step method and instrumental variable estimation,it addresses endogenous problems including sample selection bias among female migrants entering the labor market and self-selection bias in children's migration.Utilizing the processing effect of the endogenous switching model,we examined the impacts on female migrants'employment income in two scenarios:children migrating with their mother and children left behind,with a specific focus on the potential effect of left-behind children.Findings reveal that children migrating with their parents decreased female migrants'employment income.Further analysis indicates that the treatment effect(ATU)for left-behind children opting to migrate with their parents is approximately 7.9%greater than the treatment effect(ATT)for migrant children.This suggests a potentially more adverse impact if left-behind children decide to migrate with their parents.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that child migration disproportionately inhibits the employment income of female migrants in Western regions,service industries,and other sectors,and with high skills.

关 键 词：子女随迁 留守儿童 女性流动人口 就业收入 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]