2024年4月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估  

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China,April 2024

作　　者：笃梦雪 李昱[2] 赵宏婷 刘凤凤[2] 黄晓霞[3] 李明爽 施国庆[1] 涂文校[1] 向妮娟[1] 孟玲[1] Du Mengxue;Li Yu;Zhao Hongting;Liu Fengfeng;Huang Xiaoxia;Li Mingshuang;Shi Guoqing;Tu Wenxiao;Xiang Nijuan;Meng Ling(National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Public Health Emergency Center,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Division of Infectious Disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,National Immunization Program,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100050,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心应急中心,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病处,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [4]中国疾病预防控制中心免疫规划中心,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京100050

出　　处：《疾病监测》2024年第4期395-397,共3页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的评估2024年4月在我国(不含香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和台湾省,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果预计2024年4月突发公共卫生事件数可能与3月持平,以传染病类事件为主。百日咳疫情预计持续升高。发热伴血小板减少综合征发病可能进入上升期。近期境内新型冠状病毒JN.1变异株疫情呈下降趋势,预计4月疫情继续下降。当前已处于手足口病流行前期,预计4月起病例数呈增多趋势。奥罗普切热疫情输入及本土传播风险低。结论对百日咳、发热伴血小板减少综合征、新型冠状病毒感染予以重点关注,对手足口病、奥罗普切热予以一般关注。Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China(except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province,the same below)in April 2024.Methods Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases,the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)centers for disease control and prevention were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference.Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in April 2024 would be at the same level as that in March 2024.The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases.The prevalence of pertussis might continue to rise.The incidence of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome may enter a rapid rise period.The incidence of JN.1 variant of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in China has shown a decline trend and would continue to decline in April.It is in the early stage of the epidemic of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)currently,and the number of cases is predicted to increase in April.The risk of imported and local transmission in China of Oropche fever epidemic is low.Conclusion Closed attention should be paid to pertussis,severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome and COVID-19,and general attention should be paid to HFMD,and Oropche fever.

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 传染病疫情 风险评估 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R51