基于SPEI的北疆1961—2020年气象干旱变化特征  

Meteorological drought variation characteristics of Northern Xinjiang from 1961 to 2020 based on SPEI

作　　者：卫炎豪 古丽娜孜 巴特尔·巴克[1] 帕丽扎提·玉素甫 祖力克艳·麻那甫 帕提古力·麦麦提 WEI Yan-hao;Guinazi;Batur Bake;Paizhati Yusufu;Zukeya Manap;Patigui Maimaiti(College of Resources and Environment,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;Bozhou Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang,Bole 833400,Xinjiang,China;Korla Agricultural Technology Extension Center,Korla 841003,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学资源与环境学院,乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆博州气象局,新疆博乐833400 [3]库尔勒市农业技术推广中心,新疆库尔勒841003

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2024年第5期37-44,214,共9页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金资助项目(2021D01A84)。

摘　　要：基于北疆26个主要气象站点1961—2020年逐日气象数据,选取标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)为气象干旱指标,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波分析等方法对北疆年及春、夏两季SPEI和不同等级气象干旱影响范围变化特征进行了探究。结果表明,北疆实际轻旱情况更适合以-1.0<SPEI≤0识别;与年尺度的湿润化趋势相反,北疆春、夏两季均呈不同程度的干旱化趋势,且夏季极端气象干旱(重旱、特旱)事件影响范围有显著扩大趋势;1961—2020年不同尺度SPEI有1~4年的主变化周期;北疆整体气候于20世纪80年代转变后在1993—2010年呈显著湿润化趋势,春、夏季气候分别于2014年及1997年出现了由湿转干的趋势信号;研究区夏季的干旱情况于1988年开始逐渐缓解,但在2008年再次突变后干旱情况又开始逐步加剧。Based on the daily meteorological data of 26 major meteorological stations in Northern Xinjiang from 1961 to 2020,the stan-dardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)was selected as the meteorological drought index,and Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis were used to explore the variation characteristics of SPEI and the influence of different grades of meteorologi-cal drought in Northern Xinjiang in annual,spring and summer.The results showed that the actual mild drought situation in Northern Xinjiang was more suitable for identification by-1.0<SPEI≤0.Contrary to the trend of humidification at the annual scale,the North-ern Xinjiang showed different degrees of aridification in spring and summer,and the influence range of extreme meteorological drought(severe drought and extreme drought)events in summer expanded significantly.There was a main change cycle of 1~4 years for SPEI at different scales from 1961 to 2020.The overall climate of Northern Xinjiang showed a significant humidification trend from 1993 to 2010 after the transformation of the 1980s,but the spring and summer climate showed a trend signal from wet to dry in 2014 and 1997,respectively.The drought in the summer of the study area began to gradually ease in 1988,but the drought began to gradually intensify after another mutation in 2008.

关 键 词：标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI) 气象干旱 小波分析 Mann-Kendall突变检验 北疆 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]