2024年全国荔枝生产形势分析与管理建议  

Analysis of the National Litchi Production in 2024 and Management Suggestions

作　　者：陈厚彬[1,2] 杨胜男 苏钻贤[1,2] 欧善国[3] 潘蔚娟 彭晓丹 CHEN Houbin;YANG Shengnan;SU Zuanxian;OU Shanguo;PAN Weijuan;PENG Xiaodan(National Litchi and Longan Industry Technology Research and Development Center/South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642,Guangdong;Maoming Branch,Guangdong Laboratory for Lingnan Modern Agriculture,Maoming 525000,Guangdong;Guangzhou Climate and Agricultural Meteorological Bureau,Guangzhou 511430,Guangdong)

机构地区：[1]国家荔枝龙眼产业技术研发中心/华南农业大学,广东广州510642 [2]岭南现代农业科学与技术广东省实验室茂名分中心,广东茂名525000 [3]广州市气候与农业气象中心,广东广州511430

出　　处：《中国热带农业》2024年第3期8-20,共13页China Tropical Agriculture

基　　金：粤西特色亚热带水果种质创新与新品种培育技术研究与应用(2021B0707010004);乡村振兴战略专项资金(农业科技能力提升)项目(2024TS-2-2);财政部、农业农村部国家现代农业技术体系建设项目基金(CRAS-32)。

摘　　要：据2024年3月底的调查,全国荔枝种植面积785.13万亩,基于成花情况预测2024年全国荔枝总产量178.10万t,比上年减产45.94%。其中,广东87.64万t,广西41.61万t,海南22.81万t,福建11.78万t,云南7.83万t,四川6.43万t,广东、广西减产幅度较大。如以5月之前、5—7月、7月之后作为荔枝早、中、晚熟划分时间节点,今年国家荔枝龙眼产业技术体系综合试验站覆盖区域早、中、晚熟比例为47.1∶41.9∶11.0。分品种产量预测,‘妃子笑’62.85万t,‘黑叶’18.30万t,‘怀枝’9.35万t,‘白糖罂’7.99万t,‘桂味’5.05万t,‘双肩玉荷包’2.61万t,‘大红袍’1.79万t,‘白蜡’1.52万t,‘糯米糍’1.57万t。‘黑叶’‘怀枝’‘桂味’‘糯米糍’‘鸡嘴荔’等中、晚熟品种减产幅度达60%~80%。分析认为,末次秋梢成熟期偏迟和暖冬是影响今年荔枝成花的主要原因,并据此提出了相关管理技术建议。According to the survey conducted at the end of March in 2024,the litchi cultivation area in China was 7.8513 million mu.Based on the flowering situation,it was predicted that the total litchi production in China would be 1.781 million tons in 2024,a decrease of 45.94%compared to the previous year.Among them,the predicted litchi production in Guangdong would be 876,400 tons,416,100 tons in Guangxi,228,100 tons in Hainan,117,800 tons in Fujian,78,300 tons in Yunnan,and 64,300 tons in Sichuan.The production reduction in Guangdong and Guangxi was significant.If the timelines before May,May to July,and after July were used as early,mid,and late-ripening periods of litchi fruit,the early,mid,and late-ripening ratio would be 47.1:41.9:11.0 in the coverage area of this year’s comprehensive experimental station.By variety,the predicted production was as follows:‘Feizixiao’with 628,500 tons,‘Heiye’with 183,000 tons,‘Huaizhi’with 93,500 tons,‘Baitangying’with 79,900 tons,‘Guiwei’with 50,500 tons,‘Shuangjianyuhebao’with 26,100 tons,‘Dahongpao’with 17,900 tons,‘Baila’with 15,200 tons,and‘Nuomici’with 15,700 tons.The mid and late varieties such as‘Heiye’,‘Huaizhi’,‘Guiwei’,‘Nuomici’and‘Jizuili’had a production reduction ranging from 60%to 80%.The analysis indicated that the delayed maturity of the last autumn flush and the warm winter might be the primary factors influencing litchi flowering of this season.Consequently,some relevant management technical suggestions were proposed.

关 键 词：荔枝 产量与产期预测 成花影响因子 管理技术建议 

分 类 号：F326.13[经济管理—产业经济] S667.1[农业科学—果树学]