多重关联下中国省际政府债务风险传染研究  

A Study on the Contagion Effect of China’s Inter Provincial Government Debt Risk under Multiple Correlations

作　　者：朱艳丽 陆雪艳 殷丽 ZHU Yanli;LU Xueyan;YIN Li(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2024年第6期60-73,共14页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“多重空间关联网络视角下我国地方政府债务风险传染研究”(22YJC790193);国家自然科学基金重点项目“数字经济变革下的金融风险管理:基础理论、建模方法和政策分析”(72233002);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“贝叶斯框架下半参数门限模型的估计、检验及其应用”(71703030)。

摘　　要：经济发展压力下的地方政府财政缺口和资金需求与日俱增,债务规模不断扩大,随之而来的债务风险问题引起了社会各界的广泛关注。利用2010-2020年中国省级面板数据,基于地理、财政和经济社会关联构建具有不同空间权重矩阵凸组合的动态空间面板模型,在多重关联视角下探究了中国省际政府债务风险的空间传染效应及其效应分解,进一步分析了债务风险传染效应的影响因素及其经济后果。通过构建多个空间权重矩阵的凸组合,可以更全面和准确地刻画地方政府之间可能存在的多重空间互动关系,并在统一研究框架下评估不同风险传染网络的相对重要性。研究发现:中国省际政府债务风险在基于地理、财政和经济社会关联的三类风险传染网络中均存在显著的空间传染效应,且基于财政关联的风险传染网络最为重要;基于最优加权空间权重矩阵进行效应分解,发现多数情况下长期效应明显大于短期效应,直接效应比间接效应更为显著,各省份所接收和输出的债务风险存在显著的非对称性。在此基础上,进一步研究发现,经济越繁荣、地方政府间引资竞争越激烈,中国省际政府债务风险传染效应越弱;其他省份的债务风险会对本省经济发展产生显著的抑制作用。最后,从多角度对防范化解地方政府债务风险和实施科学有效的管控政策提供了针对性建议。Under the pressure of economic development,the financial gap and fund demand of local governments are increasing day by day which leads to the continuous expansion of debt scale,and the ensuing debt risk problem has aroused wide attention from all walks of life.Based on the dynamic spatial panel model with convex combinations of different spatial weight matrices based on geographical,financial,eco-social associations,the spatial contagion effect and its effect decomposition of China’s inter provincial government debt risk from the perspective of multiple associations are explored using China’s provincial panel data from 2010 to 2020,and the influencing factors and economic consequences of debt risk contagion effect are further analyzed.By constructing the convex combination of multiple spatial weight matrices,the possible multiple spatial interactions among local governments can be described more comprehensively and accurately,and the relative importance of different risk infection networks can be evaluated under the unified research framework.It is found that China’s inter provincial government debt risk has significant spatial contagion effect in the risk contagion networks based on geographical,financial and eco-social linkages,and the risk contagion network based on financial linkages is of sovereign importance.The effect decomposition based on the optimal weighted spatial weight matrix reveals that,in most cases,the long-term effects are significantly greater than the short-term effects,and the direct effects are more significant than the indirect effects.Additionally,there is a significant asymmetry in the debt risk received and exported by each province.On this basis,further research has found that the more prosperous the economy and the fiercer the competition among local governments to attract capital,the weaker the contagion effect of inter-provincial government debt risk in China.The debt risk of other related provinces will have a significant inhibitory effect on the economic development of them

关 键 词：多重关联 债务风险传染 加权空间权重矩阵 动态空间面板模型 效应分解 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]