中国岛礁区热带气旋不同空间分辨率风场模拟比较研究  

A Comparative Study on Tropical Cyclone Winds at Multiple Spatial Resolutions in the Island and Reef Area of China

作　　者：胡晓 方伟华[1,2,3,4] Hu Xiao;Fang Weihua(Key Laboratory of Environmental change and Natural Disasters,Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Being 100875,China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology(ESPRE),Beijing Normal University,Being 100875,China;Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学地理科学学部灾害风险科学研究院,北京100875 [4]应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《热带地理》2024年第6期1001-1015,共15页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3006404-02)。

摘　　要：中国岛礁数量众多,地形复杂,受热带气旋灾害影响大。高空间分辨率热带气旋风场模拟有助于表达风速空间异质性,对面积相对较小的岛礁地区开展高分辨率模拟具有重要意义。文章利用热带气旋路径、岛礁分布、土地覆盖以及数字高程数据,按照1000、90和30 m分辨率风场模型模拟了中国岛礁区历史热带气旋风速,分地形类型对比分析了各分辨率下岛礁模拟风速大小的差异性,并比较了不同空间分辨率热带气旋100 a一遇风速的差异。结果表明:1)30 m空间分辨率风速模拟准确率更高,模拟风速与8个站点实测风速的均方根误差为4.28 m/s,比90和1000 m模拟结果误差分别降低了0.08和1.04 m/s;2)不同空间分辨率模拟风速误差与地形类型相关,浙江省舟山市朱家尖岛90和1000 m模拟风速与30 m模拟风速的对比表明,平均风速模拟差异比例在山峰地形下分别为6.57%和7.61%,山谷地形下分别为21.28%和17.35%,峭壁地形下分别为22.85%和23.37%,且30 m模拟风速对于迎风坡与背风坡地形转换更敏感;3)对于100 a一遇热带气旋风速,30 m模拟风速会出现最大的风速值且空间差异更大。以浙江省舟山市朱家尖岛为例,1000、90、30 m分辨率下的模拟风速最大值分别为71.13、73.18和79.97 m/s,标准差分别为3.88、3.72和7.18 m/s。China has numerous islands and reefs with complex terrain that are heavily impacted by tropical cyclone disasters.High-resolution tropical cyclone wind-field simulations are beneficial for representing the spatial variations in wind speeds.It is important to conduct high-resolution simulations on relatively small islands and reef areas.To explore the differences in tropical cyclone wind field simulations at various spatial resolutions in the island and reef areas of China,this study compared the modeled wind fields of historical tropical cyclones in China's island and reef areas,which have complex terrains,including plains,peaks,valleys,and cliffs,at three spatial resolutions of 1,000 m,90 m,and 30 m.The wind fields were modeled using land cover and elevation data of the three spatial resolutions as inputs and validated against observed winds at eight stations.Comparisons were made regarding the differences in wind speeds of tropical cyclones with a 100-year return period at three spatial resolutions.The results showed that:(1)the 30 m resolution achieves the best accuracy,with a root mean square error of 4.28 m/s,lower than those of 90 m and 1 km by 0.08 m/s and 1.04 m/s,respectively.(2)Different spatial resolution simulations showed that wind speed errors were related to terrain types.For example,on Zhujiajian Island,located in Zhoushan City,the 30 m resolution captured the spatial heterogeneity of winds better than the other resolutions,especially for mountainous,valley,and cliff terrains.Comparisons between the simulated wind speeds at 90 m and 1,000 m resolutions versus those at 30 m resolution indicate that the differences in the simulation percentages are as follows:6.57% and 7.61% for peak terrain,21.28% and 17.35% for valley terrain,and 22.85% and 23.37% for cliff terrain,respectively.Additionally,the 30 m simulation was more sensitive to transitions between windward and leeward slope terrains.(3)For the 100-year return-period wind speeds,the 30 m resolution produced the highest values and largest spatia

关 键 词：热带气旋 风场 空间分辨率 复杂地形 岛礁区 中国 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]