台风风暴潮与上游洪水耦合作用下温州飞云江感潮河段潮水位模拟研究  

Simulation Study of Tidal Water Levels in Tidal Reach of the Wenzhou's Feiyun River under Coupled Influence of Typhoon Storm Surges and Upstream Floods

作　　者：魏国振 任明磊[1,3] 孙琳 夏志昌 陈智洋 尤再进 Wei Guozhen;Ren Minglei;Sun Lin;Xia Zhichang;Chen Zhiyang;You Zaijin(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention and Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China;Center for Ports and Maritime Safety,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;Key Laboratory of Water Security Guarantee in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China;Wenzhou Water and Drought Disaster Prevention Center,Wenzhou 325000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京100038 [2]大连海事大学,港口与航运协同创新中心,辽宁大连116026 [3]水利部京津冀水安全保障重点实验室,北京100038 [4]温州市水旱灾害防御中心,浙江温州325000

出　　处：《热带地理》2024年第6期1016-1024,共9页Tropical Geography

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金会面上项目“风暴潮与河流洪水耦合作用下海岸河口淹没灾害防控机制研究”(2023M740469)。

摘　　要：在全球气候急剧变化的背景下,沿海地区风暴潮发生的频率与受灾程度逐渐增加,特别是受风暴潮与上游流域洪水共同影响下的河口感潮河段区域。尽管现有风暴潮模型也引入多种不同的边界设置,但提供的边界条件有限,且无法满足当前国内复杂水工程的概化需求。为此,文章以飞云江流域为研究对象,通过耦合上游流域水动力模型IFMS与海洋风暴潮模型ADCIRC模式,充分发挥二者各自的优势,构建河口感潮河段洪水演进模型,实现飞云江感潮河段潮水位时空模拟。该模型不仅有效地考虑了河口海洋处风暴潮上溯对感潮河段区域洪水演进的影响,也考虑了流域上游洪水对该区域的影响。首先,采用2016年台风“鲇鱼”对模型进行验证,模拟结果与实测系列吻合度较高,误差满足基本要求。然后,对台风“杜苏芮”和“卡奴”影响下的瑞安、马屿、碧山六桥及洞头4个潮位站的洪水过程进行模拟,结果显示4个站点的洪峰误差值均低于0.30m,纳什系数大于0.80,表明该模型能较好地反映高低潮位变化,可应用于河口感潮河段防灾减灾中。最后,还分析了上、下游边界的驱动作用对感潮河段3个站点(瑞安、马屿、碧山六桥)潮水位预测的影响,证明了下边界对3个站点的潮水位预报影响比上边界的影响大。研究成果不仅为河口感潮河段洪水模拟提供了一种新方法,而且通过分析给出提升模型模拟精度的方向。Against the backdrop of rapid global climate change,the frequency and severity of storm surges in coastal areas are increasing,particularly in tidal river segments that are affected by storm surges and upstream river flooding.Although existing storm surge models have introduced a variety of different boundary settings,the boundary conditions provided are limited and cannot meet the current generalization needs of complex hydraulic engineering projects in China.This study considered the Feiyun River Basin as the research subject and coupled the upstream hydrodynamic model IFMS with the oceanic storm surge model ADCIRC.By utilizing the strengths of both models,a flood evolution model for the estuarine tidal river segment was established,enabling the spatiotemporal simulation of tidal levels in the Feiyun River tidal segment.The model not only effectively considers the impact of storm surge propagation at the estuary on flood evolution in the tidal river segment,but also the effect of upstream river flooding on the area.The study first validated the model with Typhoon Meranti in 2016,where the simulation results showed a high degree of agreement with the observed data series and errors were within acceptable limits.Flood processes at the Ruian,Mayu,Bishan Liqiao,and Dongtou tidal stations during Typhoons Doksuri and Khanun were simulated.The results show that the peak flood errors at all four stations were below 0.30 m,with Nash coefficients>0.80,indicating the model's capability to accurately reflect tidal level fluctuations and effectively contribute to disaster prevention and mitigation efforts in estuarine tidal segments.Finally,the study analyzed the impact of the driving forces of the upstream and downstream boundaries on tidal level predictions at three stations(Ruian,Mayu,and Bishan Liqiao).It was concluded that,compared to Mayu and Bishan Liqiao stations,the influence of the upstream boundary on Ruian can essentially be ignored,suggesting that the error from the upstream boundary under the influence of Typh

关 键 词：感潮河段 水动力模型 风暴潮模型 上游洪水 潮水位模拟 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]