广东省台风巨灾指数保险的研发与应用  

Development and Application of Typhoon Catastrophe Index Insurance Program in Guangdong Province

作　　者：郑璟[1] 陈卓煌 李文媛[1] 唐力生[1] Zheng Jing;Chen Zhuohuang;Li Wenyuan;Tang Lisheng(Guangdong Climate Center,Guangzhou 510641,China;CAMS&China Re CRM·Joint Open Lab on Meteorological Risk and Insurance,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省气候中心,广州510641 [2]中国气象科学研究院&中再巨灾风险管理股份有限公司气象风险与保险联合开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《热带地理》2024年第6期1139-1148,共10页Tropical Geography

基　　金：广东省气象局科学技术研究项目(GRMC2023M11);气象风险与保险联合开放实验室开放基金项目(2023F005、2023F006)。

摘　　要：文章结合广东省巨灾保险的具体实践,详细介绍了台风巨灾指数保险的研发流程、数据和关键方法,回顾了2016—2023年期间广东省台风巨灾指数保险的应用情况,系统分析了现有保险方案的优势和特点,以及存在的问题和不足,并探讨了未来可能的改进方向。主要结论为:1)基于圆形巨灾框、采用台风强度等级作为赔付结构分层标准的台风巨灾指数保险具有方法简单、易于回算、数据易获取、结果客观透明等优点;2)台风巨灾指数保险具有理赔速度快、运营成本低、可有效规避道德风险等优势;3)现有台风巨灾指数保险方案在特定情形下基差风险较为明显,对气候变化背景下台风灾害事件的极端性以及单次台风事件影响多个地市等复杂情形考虑存在不足;4)未来可从更加深入全面分析台风灾害事件规律和特征、增加更多的物理参数、获取更为准确的台风强度等级概率分布等方向加以改进。Catastrophe insurance is an important financial tool to mitigate the risk of catastrophes.After the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake,China accelerated its exploration of a catastrophe insurance system.As one of the most natural disaster-prone provinces in China,Guangdong experiences frequent rainstorms and typhoons.Severe natural disasters have not only led to significant losses to economic development and people's lives,but have placed considerable financial pressure on governments at all levels.To promote the transformation of government functions and use of catastrophe insurance as a modern financial tool to cope with major natural disasters,Guangdong has conducted pilot work since 2016 to explore and experiment with different aspects of catastrophe index insurance.This includes the design and application of insurance systems and products.The pilot work achieved remarkable results and formed the Guangdong catastrophe index insurance paradigm.However,few studies have examined the development and application of catastrophe index insurance programs in Guangdong Province.This paper describes the research and design process,data,and key methods of typhoon catastrophe index insurance in Guangdong,in accordance with the specific catastrophe index insurance practices.Furthermore,the application of the current catastrophe index insurance program from 2016 to 2023 is reviewed.Additionally,the advantages,characteristics,and shortcomings of the program are systematically analyzed,and potential directions for improvement in the future are discussed.Several notable conclusions were drawn from this study.First,the typhoon catastrophe index insurance,which is based on the circular catastrophe box and uses typhoon intensity levels as a stratification criterion for the payout structure,offers a straightforward methodology,easy recalculations,readily accessible data,and transparent results.Second,this form of insurance facilitates rapid claim settlements,incurs low operational costs,and effectively mitigates moral hazard.Third,the exist

关 键 词：台风 巨灾保险 巨灾指数保险 保险方案 广东省 

分 类 号：F842.64[经济管理—保险] P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]