大气治理政策与资源型城市碳减排:基于《大气污染防治行动计划》的视角  

Atmospheric Governance Policies and Carbon Emission Reduction in Resource-Based Cities:From the Perspective of Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan

作　　者：唐浩 佟孟华[1,2] TANG Hao;TONG Menghua(School of Economics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China;Center for Econometric and Forecasting Research,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2024年第6期1169-1180,共12页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(No.72203100);辽宁省教育厅高等学校基本科研项目(面上项目)(No.LJKR045)。

摘　　要：在“双碳”目标背景下,审视《大气污染防治行动计划》(简称“《大气十条》”)的碳减排效应对于下一步制定或健全针对性大气治理政策具有重要借鉴意义。本文以《大气十条》的实施作为准自然实验,利用2007−2017年中国272个地级市碳排放数据,探究《大气十条》对资源型城市碳减排的影响及其作用机制。结果表明:《大气十条》的实施能够显著降低资源型城市的碳排放,其政策效应约为7.90%,且在随机抽取处理组、更换被解释变量衡量方式、考虑预期效应、更换样本、剔除极端样本以及排除其他政策干扰等稳健性检验下依旧成立。《大气十条》对财政压力较大、城镇化水平较高、空气流通系数较小的资源型城市的碳减排促进作用更强。机制分析发现,《大气十条》通过推动资源型城市采取调整产业结构、降低能源消耗、加强监管处罚、限制中低端企业进入市场的方式降低碳排放。因此,未来需制定更加具有针对性的大气治理政策,根据城市发展特征和自然禀赋,建立差异化的碳减排考核机制。In the context of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,testing the carbon reduction effect of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan has important reference significance for the next step of formulating or improving targeted atmospheric governance policies.This article takes the implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan as a quasinatural experiment and uses carbon emission data of 272 prefecture-level cities in China from 2007 to 2017 to explore the impact and mechanism of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on carbon emission reduction in resource-based cities.The study found that implementing the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan can significantly reduce the carbon emissions in resourcebased cities,with the policy effect being approximately 7.90%.It still holds true under robustness tests such as randomly selecting treatment groups,changing the measurement method of the dependent variables,considering expected effects,replacing samples,excluding extreme samples,and excluding other policy interference.The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan has a stronger effect on carbon emission reduction in resource-based cities with high financial pressure,high urbanization levels,and low air circulation coefficient.Mechanism analysis found that this policy reduces carbon emissions by promoting resource-based cities to adjust industrial structure,reducing energy consumption,strengthening regulatory penalties,and restricting mid-and low-end enterprises from entering the market.Therefore,in the future,it is necessary to formulate more targeted atmospheric governance policies and establish a differentiated carbon emission reduction assessment mechanisms based on urban development characteristics and natural endowments.

关 键 词：大气治理政策 双重差分 碳减排 资源型城市 气候变化 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]