2023年巴以冲突中以色列情报失误问题研究  

Israeli's Intelligence Failures in the 2023 Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

作　　者：徐鹏 刘传平[3] Xu Peng;Liu Chuanping(Party School of CPC Guizhou Provincial Committee High-end Think Tank on Institutional Guarantees for Guizhou's Development,Guiyang 550028;School of Government,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023;Department of World Economy and Politics,Party School of Jiangsu Provincial Committee of CPC,Nanjing 210009)

机构地区：[1]中共贵州省委党校贵州发展制度保障高端智库,贵阳550028 [2]南京大学政府管理学院,南京210023 [3]中共江苏省委党校世界经济与政治教研部,南京210009

出　　处：《情报杂志》2024年第6期7-13,共7页Journal of Intelligence

摘　　要：[研究目的]在2023年哈马斯突袭以色列的行动中,以色列情报部门出现了严重失误。研究情报失误问题,能够为情报预警工作提供经验和启示。[研究方法]通过分析媒体报道、智库文章和学术成果,总结以色列在哈马斯突袭事件中失误的情报战略和情报战术原因。[研究结论]研究认为,以色列在情报战略方面未能将哈马斯作为首要战略威胁,错误估计了哈马斯能力和意图;在情报战术上过度依赖技术情报而轻人力情报,突袭发生后战场情报未能及时传递。以色列情报失误启示我们,应当均衡人力情报和技术情报能力,强化混合战争背景下的信息识别能力,避免情报政治化。[Research purpose]There was a serious failure by Israeli intelligence during the Hamas raid on Israel in 2023.Examining the issue of intelligence failures can provide lessons and insights for intelligence warning efforts.[Research method]This research summarizes the reasons for Israel'failed intelligence strategy and tactics in the Hamas raid by analyzing media reports,think tank articles,and academic research achievement.[Research conclusion]It concludes that Israel failed to treat Hamas as a primary strategic threat in its intelligence strategy and misjudged Hamas'capabilities and intentions;in terms of intelligence tactics,Israel over-relied on technical intelligence and under-relied on human intelligence,and failed to transmit battlefield intelligence in a timely manner after the raid.Israel'intelligence failures show that we should balance human and technical intelligence capabilities,strengthen our ability to identify information in the context of hybrid warfare,and avoid politicizing intelligence.

关 键 词：巴以冲突 战略情报 技术情报 人力情报 战场情报 情报失误 情报政治化 以色列 

分 类 号：D526[政治法律—政治学]