美国情报界对华威胁认知论析--以《美国情报界年度威胁评估》报告为分析对象  

Analysis of U.S.Intelligence Community's Threat Perception of China--Taking the Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S.Intelligence Community Reports as the Analysis Object

作　　者：周文星 Zhou Wenxing(School of International Studies,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023;Huazhi Institute for Global Governance,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023)

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际关系学院,南京210023 [2]南京大学华智全球治理研究院,南京210023

出　　处：《情报杂志》2024年第6期96-100,109,共6页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“美国国会立法干涉台湾问题的规律、风险与对策研究(1973—2021)”(编号:21CGJ047)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]分析美国情报界对中国的威胁认知与评估,有助于理解美国对华战略竞争及其未来前景,为维护我国国家安全具有重要意义。[研究方法]以历年《美国情报界年度威胁评估》报告为分析对象,采用案例研究法和文献分析法,探讨美国情报界对华威胁认知、影响因素、危害后果与中方应对。[研究结论]随着美国外部安全环境和中美关系的变化,美国情报界日益视中国为“首要威胁”,对中国国家利益构成愈加严峻的挑战。中国应基于对美国情报界对华威胁认知趋势及其危害的全面分析,制定应对之策。[Research purpose]Analyzing U.S.intelligence community(IC)'s threat perception and assessment of China is conducive to understanding U.S.strategic competitive policy towards China and its prospects,which is of great significance to safeguard China's national security.[Research method]Case study and literature analysis methods are used to analyze the Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S.Intelligence Community reports so as to explore U.S.IC's threat perception of China,influencing factors,consequences and China's countermeasures.[Research conclusion]The U.S.IC's threat perception and assessment of China has been dynamically adjusted in accordance with the changes of U.S.external security environment and U.S.-China relations,perceiving China now as the"biggest threat"to the U.S.and therefore posing an increasingly severe challenge to China's national interests.China should formulate its countermeasures based on an overall analysis of U.S.IC's China threat perception and its damage.

关 键 词：美国情报界 威胁认知 “中国威胁” 国家安全 中美关系 

分 类 号：D801[政治法律—政治学]