基于Wiener随机过程模型的橡胶老化性能预测及剩余寿命分析  

Rubber Aging Performance Prediction and Residual Life Analysis Based on Wiener Stochastic Process Model

作　　者：张金奎 王学孔 王小四 ZHANG Jin-kui;WANG Xue-kong;WANG Xiao-si(The fifth electronic research institute of MIIT,Guangzhou 511300)

机构地区：[1]工业和信息化部电子第五研究所,广州511300

出　　处：《环境技术》2024年第5期67-72,共6页Environmental Technology

摘　　要：橡胶老化性能预测及寿命分析是橡胶工程应用中关键技术。开展了硅橡胶95℃、105℃、115℃、125℃不同温度加速老化试验,根据硅橡胶性能特点及其应用过程需要,选择硅橡胶永久压缩变形作为老化性能表征量。结合橡胶老化机理,分析了橡胶老化性能随机特性,提出利用Wiener随机过程构建橡胶老化模型,进行了硅橡胶老化性能预测,给出了各试验点预测性能概率密度,分析结果表明预测误差最大10.15%。结合Wiener随机过程理论,开展了硅橡胶剩余寿命分析,对寿命分析方法进行了精度分析,计算分析结果表明寿命分析最大误差为11.76%,寿命分析方法可信,计算结果可靠。利用Arrhenius加速模型,给出了不同加速温度下硅橡胶寿命,计算得到常温25℃温度下,硅橡胶平均寿命为76年。The prediction of rubber aging performance and life analysis are the key technologies in rubber engineering applications.The accelerated aging tests of silicone rubber at different temperatures(95℃,105℃,115℃,125℃)were carried out.According to the properties of silicone rubber and the requirements of its application process,the silicone rubber was selected to be permanently compressed deformation as the token of aging properties.Based on the aging mechanism of rubber,the random characteristics of aging properties of rubber were analyzed,and the aging model of rubber was established by Wiener stochastic process,the probability density of prediction performance at each test point is given.The results show that the maximum prediction error is 1o.15%.Based on the theory of Wiener stochastic process,the residual life analysis of silicone rubber was carried out,and the precision of the life analysis method was analyzed.The results showed that the maximum error of life analysis was ll.76%,and the life analysis method was credible,the result of calculation is reliable.By using Arrhenius acceleration model,the silicone rubber life at different acceleration temperature was given.The average life of silicone rubber at room temperature of 25 C was calculated to be76years.

关 键 词：WIENER过程 橡胶老化性能 试验 寿命分析 温度 

分 类 号：TB535[理学—物理]