非药物性干预措施对0~14岁儿童法定传染病发病的影响  

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases in children aged 0-14

作　　者：刘建昭[1,2] 刘天 秦周[1,2] 阮德欣 向泉 姚梦雷 LIU Jianzhao;LIU Tian;QIN Zhou;RUAN Dexin;XIANG Quan;YAO Menglei(Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou,Hubei 434000,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]荆州市疾病预防控制中心,湖北荆州434000 [2]长江大学公共卫生研究中心

出　　处：《医学动物防制》2024年第6期531-537,共7页Journal of Medical Pest Control

基　　金：湖北省卫生计生委2018年联合基金项目(WJ2018H256);荆州市2021年度医疗卫生科技计划项目(2021HC20)。

摘　　要：目的以荆州市数据为例,探讨非药物性干预措施(non-pharmaceutical interventions,NPIs)对0~14岁儿童法定传染病(notifiable infectious diseases,NIDs)发病的影响。方法2015年第1周—2020年第5周作为历史数据拟合贝叶斯结构时间序列(Bayesian structural time series,BSTS)模型并预测2020年6—53周NIDs发病例数。相对下降(relative risk,RR)评价指标被用于评价NPIs对NIDs的影响。分病种、年龄组、性别、人群、传播途径和时期进行亚组分析。结果荆州市2020年6—53周0~14岁儿童共报告NIDs 16种5219例,较2015—2019年同期下降64.57%。基于模型2020年6—53周NIDs发病例数总体下降54.51%,其中甲乙类传染病下降59.09%,丙类传染病下降54.28%。从传播途径看,呼吸道传染病的发病例数下降幅度最大(RR=87.58%,95%CI:56.64%~118.16%)。不同性别NIDs的发病例数下降幅度相当。从年龄看,6~<12岁年龄组的下降幅度最大(RR=83.39%,95%CI:35.5%~128.83%)。从人群分类看,学生NIDs的发病例数下降幅度最大(RR=79.62%,95%CI:18.02%~141.32%)。从病种看,流行性感冒(RR=90.37%,95%CI:58.78%~119.93%)、手足口病(RR=74.16%,95%CI:59.66%~88.60%)分别是呼吸道传染病、肠道传染病发病例数下降幅度最大疾病。结论NPIs能显著降低0~14岁儿童NIDs发病例数,在年龄、人群分类等亚组存在差异。应以此为依据,针对性采取严格NPIs以保护该人群。Objective To investigate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs)on the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases(NIDs)in children aged 0-14 years,utilizing the data from Jingzhou City as an example.Methods Historical data from the 1st week of 2015 to the 5th week of 2020 were utilized to fit a Bayesian structural time series(BSTS)model for predicting the number of incidence cases of NIDs from weeks 6th to 53rd in 2020.The relative risk(RR)served as an evaluative metric to assess the impact of NPIs on NIDs.Subgroup analyses were conducted based on disease type,age group,gender,crowd,transmission route,and period.Results During the 6th to the 53rd week of 2020,Jingzhou City reported a total of 5219 cases of 16 types of NIDs among children aged 0-14 years,representing a decrease of 64.57%compared to the corresponding period in 2015-2019.According to the model,the overall number of incidence cases of NIDs from weeks 6th to 53rd in 2020 decreased by 54.51%,of which category A and B infectious diseases decreased by 59.09%,while those of category C by 54.28%.From the perspective of transmission route,respiratory infectious diseases showed the most significant decrease in the number of incidence cases(RR=87.58%,95%CI:56.64%-118.16%).Gender-specific reductions were comparable in the number of NIDs,with the age group of 6~<12 years exhibiting the most substantial decrease(RR=83.39%,95%CI:35.5%-128.83%).Among different population classifications,students experienced the greatest reduction of the number of NIDs(RR=79.62%,95%CI:18.02%-141.32%).When considering disease types,influenza(RR=90.37%,95%CI:58.78%-119.93%)and hand,foot and mouth disease(RR=74.16%,95%CI:59.66%-88.60%)demonstrated the most significant reductions among the number of incidence cases respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases,respectively.Conclusion NPIs can significantly reduce the number of incidence cases of NIDs among children aged 0-14 years,with differentiations observed in subgroups such as age and population classification.Targe

关 键 词：非药物干预措施 传染性疾病 公共卫生措施 荆州市 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学]