移动平均法在手足口病监测预警中的应用  

Application of moving average method in monitoring and early warning of hand,foot and mouth disease

作　　者：陶旭[1] 刘莹莹[2] 杨健 郑立新[1] 董俊善[1] 史明坤[1] TAO Xu;LIU Yingying;YANG Jian;ZHENG Lixin;DONG Junshan;SHI Mingkun(Qinhuangdao Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Qinhuangdao,Hebei 066000,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]秦皇岛市疾病预防控制中心,河北秦皇岛066000 [2]河北省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《医学动物防制》2024年第6期588-590,595,共4页Journal of Medical Pest Control

基　　金：河北省省级重大医学科研课题——手足口病流行的影响因素与干预措施研究(zd2013068);河北省医学科学研究课题——应用EV-A71疫苗前后河北省手足口病流行特征研究(20231181);秦皇岛市级科学技术研究与发展计划——重大突发公共卫生事件风险评估模型研究(202003B027)。

摘　　要：目的探讨移动平均法在手足口病监测预警中的应用,为早期防控手足口病提供理论依据。方法利用Excel 2016软件对2015—2019年秦皇岛市手足口病报告发病数进行逐周统计,建立以周为时间序列的拟合方程。采用平均数、标准差等统计方法计算变量值,并绘制秦皇岛市2020年手足口病预警控制图,对发病趋势进行预测预警。结果通过移动平均法制作预警控制图,得到基线、警戒线、行动线,并预测出2020年秦皇岛市手足口病高发时间在第23周至第37周,发病高峰在第29周。结论移动平均法可对传染病进行整体发病趋势预测预警,且操作简单,预测预警效果好,可以消除周期变动和随机波动的影响,是一种实用的传染病预测方法。疫情监测人员应在手足口病高发时段来临前做好健康宣教等工作,并根据每周手足口病病例的实际报告数,参考预警控制图及时做出做出相应的反应,减少主观判断。Objective To discuss the application of moving average method in the prediction and early warning of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Qinhuangdao,so as to provide a theoretical basis for the early prevention and control of the disease.Methods Weekly statistics on reported HFMD cases in Qinhuangdao from 2015 to 2019 were conducted using Excel 2016 software.A fitting equation with a weekly time series was established.Variable values were calculated using statistical methods such as mean and standard deviation.A warning and control chart for HFMD in Qinhuangdao for 2020 was drawn to predict and warn the disease incidence trend.Results By using the moving average method to make a warning control chart,the baseline,alert line,and action line were obtained.It was predicted that the high incidence of HFMD in Qinhuangdao in 2020 would occur from the 23rd to the 37th week,with a peak incidence in the 29th week.Conclusion The moving average method can predict the overall trend of infectious diseases.The moving average method has the advantages of simple operation,effective prediction and early warning outcomes.It can eliminate the influence of periodic variation and random fluctuation.Therefore,it proves to be a practical method for the prediction of infectious diseases.Epidemic monitoring personnel should conduct health education and other work before the high-incidence period of HFMD arrives,and based on the actual number of weekly reports of HFMD cases,they should refer to the warning control chart to make timely responses,reducing subjective judgments.

关 键 词：手足口病 移动平均法 预测预警 时间序列 病例数 

分 类 号：R512.5[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]