盐城市气温与居民死亡关联分析:基于分布滞后非线性模型  

Association of ambient temperature with mortality of residents in Yancheng,China:a study based on the distributed lag non-linear model

作　　者：晁建磊 孙佳皓 刘付东[1] 孙伯超 王宇然 周文君 赵有政 黄连成[1] CHAO Jian-lei;SUN Jia-hao;LIU Fu-dong;SUN Bo-chao;WANG Yu-ran;ZHOU Wen-jun;ZHAO You-zheng;HUANG Lian-cheng(Yancheng Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Yancheng 224000,China;Zhongshan College of Dalian Medical University;Yancheng Weather Office in Jiangsu Province;Jiangsu Yancheng Environmental Monitoring Center)

机构地区：[1]江苏省盐城市疾病预防控制中心,盐城224000 [2]大连医科大学中山学院 [3]盐城市气象局 [4]江苏省盐城环境监测中心

出　　处：《环境卫生学杂志》2024年第6期482-488,共7页JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE

基　　金：国家科技基础资源调查专项(2017FY101200);江苏省环境监测科研基金项目(1906);江苏省双创博士人才项目(JSSCBS20222029)。

摘　　要：目的研究温度对盐城市居民死亡的健康效应。方法分别从当地疾控部门、气象局和环境监测中心收集2015—2019年盐城市居民逐日死亡数据(非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病和循环系统疾病)、气象和空气污染数据。通过建立分布滞后非线性模型,评价气温与居民死亡关联。结果气温与居民非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和循环系统疾病死亡的关联呈“U”型。极端低温与居民非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和循环系统疾病死亡的关联呈现滞后性,相对危险度(RR)在暴露第3天达到最大,分别为1.03(95%CI:1.02~1.04)、1.06(95%CI:1.04~1.09)和1.02(95%CI:1.00~1.04);极端高温与居民非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和循环系统疾病死亡的关联呈现急性效应,RR在暴露当天健康效应最大,分别为1.19(95%CI:1.14~1.24)、1.20(95%CI:1.10~1.30)和1.25(95%CI:1.17~1.33)。极端低温对非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和循环系统疾病死亡的累计健康效应RR值均在14天后达到最大;极端高温对非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和循环系统疾病死亡的累计健康效应分别在暴露3、7和7天后达到最大。男性死亡风险在极端低温时高于女性,在极端高温时低于女性;≥65岁人群在极端高温时的非意外总死亡和循环系统疾病死亡风险高于<65岁人群。结论非适宜温度会增加盐城市居民的死亡健康风险,且低温滞后效应的持续时间比高温长。Objective To investigate the health effect of temperature on the mortality of residents in Yancheng,China.Methods Daily mortality data(total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality,and circulatory disease mortality),meteorological data,and air pollution data of Yancheng from 2015 to 2019 were collected from local disease control and prevention departments,meteorological bureau,and environmental monitoring centers,respectively.A distributed lag non-linear model was established to evaluate the association between temperature and mortality of residents.Results The association curves of temperature with total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality,and circulatory disease mortality were U-shaped.The association of extreme low temperature with total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality,and circulatory disease mortality showed a lag effect,and the highest value of relative risk(RR)was observed on day 3 of exposure,with RR values of 1.03(95%confidence interval[CI]:1.02-1.04),1.06(95%CI:1.04-1.09),and 1.02(95%CI:1.00-1.04),respectively.The association of extreme high temperature with total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality,and circulatory disease mortality showed an acute effect,and the highest value of RR was observed on the day of exposure,with RR values of 1.19(95%CI:1.14-1.24),1.20(95%CI:1.10-1.30),and 1.25(95%CI:1.17-1.33),respectively.The highest RR value was observed for the cumulative health effect of extreme low temperature on total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality,and circulatory disease mortality on day 14 of exposure,and the cumulative health effect of extreme high temperature on total non-accidental mortality reached the maximum value on day 3 of exposure,while the cumulative health effect of extreme high temperature on respiratory disease mortality and circulatory disease mortality reached the maximum value on day 7 of exposure.The death risk of men was higher than that of women at extreme low temperature and was lowe

关 键 词：气温 死亡风险 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]