基于STIRPAT模型湖南省建筑碳排放影响因素研究  

Study on influencing factors of building carbon emissions in Hunan Province based on the STIRPAT model

作　　者：苗泽惠[1] 李龙[1] Miao Zehui;Li Long(Jilin Jianzhu University,Changchun Jilin 130118,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林建筑大学,吉林长春130118

出　　处：《山西建筑》2024年第13期20-24,共5页Shanxi Architecture

基　　金：吉林省教育科学“十四五”规划2022年度重点课题“面向智能建造与建筑工业化协同发展需求的国家级现代产业学院建设及其运行机制研究”(ZD22121)。

摘　　要：以湖南省为对象,利用IPCC法测算了2010年至2021年的建筑碳排放,并采用随机性环境影响评估模型(STIRPAT)分析了人口数量、城镇化率、人均GDP、第三产业占比和碳排放强度等五大因素对建筑碳排放的影响。结果显示影响程度依次为:人口数量(8.351)、城镇化率(0.951)、人均GDP(0.466)、碳排放强度(0.232)、第三产业占比(0.180)。在此基础上,通过情景分析预测了这些因素在基准、低碳和高碳情景下的变化趋势,并提出了建筑减排措施与建议,为制定区域性建筑碳减排政策提供了决策支持。Using the Province of Hunan as the subject,carbon emissions from construction activities were estimated for the period from 2010 to 2021 using the IPCC method.The study employed the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence and Technology(STIRPAT)model to analyze the influence of five major factors-population size,urbanization rate,per capita GDP,share of the tertiary industry,and carbon intensity-on building-related carbon emissions.The results indicated the following impact magnitudes in descending order:population size(8.351),urbanization rate(0.951),per capita GDP(0.466),carbon intensity(0.232),and share of the tertiary industry(0.180).Building on these findings,scenario analysis was conducted to predict the trends of these influencing factors under baseline,low-carbon,and high-carbon scenarios.Furthermore,a set of measures and recommendations for carbon reduction in construction was proposed,providing critical decision support for the formulation of regional policies aimed at mitigating carbon emissions.

关 键 词：建筑碳排放 STIRPAT模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：TU201.5[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]