日本经济低迷三十年:特征事实、政策应对与启示镜鉴  

Japan’s Long‑Term Economic Downturn in the Past 30 Years:Stylized Facts,Policy Response and Implications

作　　者：闫坤 周旭海 YAN Kun;ZHOU Xu-hai(Institute of Japanese Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100007,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院日本研究所,北京100007

出　　处：《财经问题研究》2024年第6期15-30,共16页Research On Financial and Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金社科学术社团资助项目“日本收入分配制度及其对中国推动共同富裕的政策启示研究”(22STA034)。

摘　　要：20世纪90年代以来,日本经济陷入长期低迷,具体表现为经济长期低速增长、持续通缩、消费持续疲软、私营部门投资长期不足和低利率成为常态。分要素来看,资本投入和劳动投入对日本经济增长的贡献均呈现下降趋势,全要素生产率逐渐成为日本经济增长的首要动力。日本潜在经济增速维持在0.5%—1%,增速缺口多数年份为负,且绝对值明显拉大。通过国际比较可发现,日本经济增速放缓属正常现象,但在面对“黑天鹅”事件和“灰犀牛”事件时表现得较为脆弱。从宏观经济的短期走势来看,日本经济周期波动呈现以下新趋势:一是经济周期平均时间拉长,特别是扩张期明显变长;二是经济周期波动变小,扩张期经济增长乏力。此外,日本和美国经济周期协同性较强。为应对经济长期低迷,日本先后以提高资源配置效率和解决经济社会中长期发展问题为出发点,对产业政策进行了两次调整,并通过财政重建路线和再通胀路线的交替,不断调整财政政策和货币政策。日本宏观经济政策对中国的启示在于,不断优化政府和市场的关系,充分重视健全宏观经济治理体系。After the collapse of the bubble economy in the early 1990s,Japan’s economy turned from a medium⁃high growth stage to a low⁃growth stage.Academia has reached a consensus that its economy has fallen into a long⁃term downturn.However,it does not mean that the characteristics of economic development remain unchanged.On the contrary,many aspects of economic growth and the fluctuation of economic cycles may still be in dynamic changes.Grasping the changed and the unchanged is particularly crucial for comprehensively determining the trend of Japan’s macro⁃economy.Based on the main macroeconomic indicators,this paper first initially outlines the characteristics of Japan’s economic downturn in the past 30 years.Then,this paper describes its deep⁃seated characteristics from two perspectives of economic growth and the fluctuation of economic cycles,and pays attention to vertical and horizontal comparison.Additionally,this paper systematically analyzes the general ideas and specific adjustments of Japan’s industrial policy,fiscal policy,and monetary policy,to form a more comprehensive and objective understanding of its macroeconomic policies and provide reference for China to solidly promote high⁃quality economic development at the present stage.This paper argues that Japan’s economic downturn in the past 30 years is manifested by long⁃term low economic growth,persistent deflation,and weak consumption,long⁃term insufficient private sector investment,and low interest rates becoming the norm.In terms of various factors,the contribution of capital and labor input to Japan’s economic growth has shown a downward trend,and the total factor productivity(TFP)has gradually leaped to the primary motive force.Meanwhile,Japan’s potential economic growth rate has maintained at 0.5%‒1%,with the growth gap being negative in most years and significantly widening in absolute terms.Through international comparison,this paper finds that it is normal for Japan’s economy to slow down,but Japan’s economy is re

关 键 词：日本经济 长期低迷 经济增长 经济周期波动 宏观经济政策 

分 类 号：F131.3[经济管理—世界经济]