粤港澳大湾区能源消费碳达峰情景预测研究  

The Forecasting Research on the Scenarios of Energy Consumption Carbon Peaking in the Guangdong Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

作　　者：徐维军[1,2] 肖宇光 Xu Weijun;Xiao Yuguang

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学工商管理学院 [2]广州金融服务创新与风险管理研究基地

出　　处：《城市观察》2024年第3期40-67,159,160,共30页Urban Insight

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目“绿色金融支持我国‘双碳’目标实现路径研究”(22YJA630099);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“绿色金融支持粤港澳大湾区双碳先行示范研究”(GD23CGL10);广州市哲学社会科学规划课题“广州统筹推进碳达峰碳中和与经济社会协同发展研究”(2023GZYB09)成果。

摘　　要：本研究结合IPCC能源消费法和夜间灯光数据反演法,估算出2005-2021年粤港澳大湾区各区市的能源消费碳排放量,并基于拓展的STIRPAT预测模型,结合情景假设法和蒙特卡罗动态模拟法,模拟分析大湾区可能的碳达峰路径,进而提出针对性政策建议。研究结果显示,大湾区2005-2021年碳排放量呈现波动上升态势,其中香港地区已于2014年实现碳达峰,澳门地区碳排放量占比较小;珠三角九市自2011年呈现下降态势,2016年后又波动增长。动态模拟发现大湾区在基准情景、低碳情景、极低碳情景、产业转型情景和全低速情景下能如期甚至提前实现2030年碳达峰目标,若采取更积极的碳减排和产业转型政策可以提前实现碳达峰。This study employs a combined methodology integrating the IPCC energy consumption approach and night-time light data inversion to estimate carbon emissions stemming from energy usage across cities within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area spanning the period from 2005 to 2021.Utilizing an extended STIRPAT forecasting model,scenario assumption method,and Monte Carlo dynamic simulation,this study simu‐lates and analyzes potential carbon peaking pathways for the Greater Bay Area and proposes targeted policy rec‐ommendations.Findings reveal a fluctuating upward trajectory in carbon emissions within the Greater Bay Area during the specified timeframe.Hong Kong achieved carbon peaking in 2014,while Macao exhibited a relatively minor contribution to total carbon emissions.Notably,the nine cities within the Pearl River Delta demonstrated a declining trend post-2011,followed by fluctuating growth post-2016.Dynamic simulations under various scenari‐os-baseline,low-carbon,extremely low-carbon,industrial transformation,and all-around low-growth-suggest that the Greater Bay Area could attain its 2030 carbon peak target as scheduled,or even surpass it ahead of schedule.The adoption of more proactive carbon reduction and industrial transformation policies could propel an earlier realization of the carbon peak.

关 键 词：粤港澳大湾区 能源消费碳排放 碳达峰 绿色低碳 情景预测 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]