宏观审慎政策有效性研究——来自全球80个国家的证据  

Research on the Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policy---Evidence from 80 Countries Around the World

作　　者：林洁 Lin Jie(College of Economy,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266061)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院,青岛266061

出　　处：《黑龙江八一农垦大学学报》2024年第3期128-136,共9页journal of heilongjiang bayi agricultural university

摘　　要：金融危机之后,各国政策制定者开始采取宏观审慎政策以维持金融稳定,并通过分析信贷和房价增长的稳定来判断金融稳定程度。文章分析了1990年第一季度至2019年第四季度全球各国对宏观审慎政策的使用情况,并对80个国家的宏观审慎政策对信贷和房价的增长进行研究。研究结果表明:宏观审慎政策在抑制信贷以及房价增长方面总体上是有效的,但是宏观审慎政策的有效性在不同类型的国家之间有一定的区别,在发展中国家和金融开放程度高的国家,宏观审慎政策在抑制信贷和房价增长方面更加有效。此外,不同类型的宏观审慎政策针对不同的宏观经济变量有效性会有一定的差别,所以面对不同的情况,要选择恰当的宏观审慎政策进行调控。同时,在区分宽松型和紧缩型的宏观审慎政策之后发现,两种方向的宏观审慎政策对信贷和房价增长的影响具有不对称性。基于文章的研究结果提出政策建议:我国在进行宏观审慎调控时应选择合适的宏观审慎工具,同时还要健全金融体制,丰富我国的宏观审慎政策工具箱,提高宏观审慎政策的有效性。In the aftermath of the financial crisis,policymakers began to adopt macroprudential policies to maintain financial stability and judge the degree of financial stability by analyzing the stability of credit and house price growth.It analyzed the use of macroprudential policies by countries around the world from the first quarter of 1990 to the fourth quarter of 2019,and examined the growth of credit and house prices in macroprudential policies in 80 countries.The results showed that macroprudential policies were generally effective in curbing credit and house price growth,but the effectiveness of macroprudential policies differed somewhat between different types of countries,and in developing countries and countries with high financial openness,macroprudential policies were more effective in curbing credit and house price growth.In addition,different types of macroprudential policies would have certain differences in the effectiveness of different macroeconomic variables,so in the face of different situations,it was necessary to choose appropriate macroprudential policies for regulation.At the same time,after distinguishing between loose and austerity macroprudential policies,it was found that the impact of macroprudential policies in both directions on credit and house price growth was also asymmetrical.Based on the research results,the following policy suggestions were proposed:China should choose appropriate macroprudential tools when carrying out macroprudential regulation and control,and at the same time,it was also necessary to improve the financial system,enrich China's macroprudential policy toolbox,and improve the effectiveness of macroprudential policies.

关 键 词：宏观审慎政策 信贷增长 房价增长 

分 类 号：F831.0[经济管理—金融学]