北川县近30年气温降水变化特征  

Characteristics of temperature and precipitation changes in Beichuan County in the last 30 years

作　　者：张文琳 ZHANG Wen-lin(School of Water Resource&Hydro-power,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《地下水》2024年第3期212-216,共5页Ground water

基　　金：四川大学大学生科研创新项目(202310611105);气候变化影响下山区强降雨区域特征研究。

摘　　要：根据北川县1992-2019年逐月温度、1992-2022年逐月降水量资料,采用趋势分析法、Mann-kendall检验等方法分析了北川县温度、降水变化特征及其相关性。结果表明:1992-2019年,北川县年平均气温与四季气温均呈上升趋势,年平均气温的增温倾向率是﹙0.36℃/10a﹚,年平均气温于1998年、2001年、2004年、2005年发生了突变,四季平均气温具有一定周期性变化特征;1992-2022年,北川县多年平均降水量为886.3 mm,年平均降水量呈上升趋势,降水变化倾向率是(3.9 mm/10a),降水量增加的主要原因是大暴雨频率增加,年降水量于2013年、2016年发生了突变,且存在周期性特征;强降雨天气主要发生在夏季,呈现出连续增多趋势;降水量与气温的变化呈正相关关系。研究结果可为北川地区地质灾害的防治提供一定的理论支撑。Based on the monthly temperature data of Beichuan County from 1992 to 2019,the monthly precipitation data from 1992 to 2022,the variations of temperature and rainfall of Beichuan County are analyzed by linear trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test.The results show that from 1992-2019,the average annual and seasonal mean temperature show an increasing trend,the increasing slope for average annualtemperature is 0.36℃/10a,the average annual temperature changed abruptly in 1998,2001,2004,and 2005,and seasonal average temperatures exhibit periodic variation characteristics;From 1992-2022,the average annual precipitation in Beichuan County was 886.3 mm,showing an increasing trend,and the increasing slope forprecipitation is 3.9 mm/10a,The increase in precipitation was mainly due to the increased frequency of heavy rainstorms,annual precipitation changed abruptly in 2013 and 2016,and it exhibits periodic characteristics;heavy rainfall weather occurs mainly in summer,and shows a continuous increasing trend;The temperature have a positive correlation with precipitation.The research results can provide the theoretical support for geological disaster prevention in Beichuan.

关 键 词：北川县 气温 降水 变化特征 地质灾害 

分 类 号：P423.34[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P426.614