失联企业何其多——基于中国企业创新创业调查的分析  

Out-of-Contact Firms in China——Evidence from ESIEC

作　　者：权盈月 孙妍 张晓波 Yingyue Quan;Yan Sun;Xiaobo Zhang(Guanghua School of Management,Peking University;Institute of Social Science Survey,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院 [2]北京大学中国社会科学调查中心

出　　处：《经济管理学刊》2024年第2期31-54,共24页Quarterly Journal of Economics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“商事制度改革成效--基于企业微观视角的研究”(71874008);“数字经济中创新与竞争的动态关系”(72192844)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：企业是生产经营活动的主要载体,因此注册企业数量被广泛用于衡量经济活力和企业家精神。然而,注册企业数量与从事正常经营活动企业数量之间存在差距,忽视该差距直接用注册企业数量来分析,得到的结论可能是有偏的。本文基于中国企业创新创业调查随机抽取的六省市近5万家工商注册企业的走访记录,发现35.2%的注册企业无法通过任何联系方式(包含地址和电话)找到,处于失联状态。结合经济活动大数据的分析显示,失联企业更可能出现在企业黑名单中,其从事正常经济活动的比例更低,有更高的可能性是没有实际经营业务的空壳企业。失联企业更多集中于产业政策较多(用政府消费来衡量)的高技术服务业和营商环境较差的地区。The number of registered firms is widely used as an indicator of economic vitality and entrepreneurship,ignoring the fact that registered firms may be unproductive and destructive.This paper is among the first to explore unproductive firms by analyzing the visit records of nearly 50000 randomly selected registered firms.Normal business activities require firms to be fully exposed to the market so that they can be contacted by their upstream,downstream,and peer parties.However,there are always firms engaged in unproductive activities that choose to hide their contact information and avoid exposure to the market.Due to the lack of data,little is known about unproductive firms,and even some basic facts are not clear,such as the percentage of unproductive firms and their causes.Using the number of registered firms as a measure of economic vitality or entrepreneurship can be biased if the difference between the number of registered firms and the number of firms engaged in productive activities is ignored.The Enterprise Survey for Innovation and Entrepreneurship in China(ESIEC)2023 sampled nearly 50000 registered firms from the China Business Registration Database.The field study shows that 35.2%of registered firms cannot be contacted by both address and telephone number.By matching the surveyed firms with other big data on economic activities,we find that the probability of an out-of-contact firm appearing in the blacklist of firms is 0.3%higher than that of contacted firms,and the proportion of those engaged in normal economic activities,such as posting online job vacancies,bidding for government projects,applying for trademarks and patents,is even lower.Finally,out-of-contact firms are more likely to be shell firms;their registered capital(in log form)is 14.1%higher than that of contacted firms,but their number of employees in social security(adding one and taking the log form)is 15.1%lower than that of others.Further analysis shows that out-of-contact firms are more likely to be in high-tech service industries with

关 键 词：失联企业 经营活动 工商注册数据 

分 类 号：F016[经济管理—政治经济学]