粮食安全视域下中国自东盟农产品进口贸易潜力研究——基于随机前沿引力模型的测度  

Potential of China’s Import Trade of Agricultural Products From ASEAN With Focus on Food Security:Measurement Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

作　　者：崔昊 吴婷 霍强[3] Cui Hao;Wu Ting;Huo Qiang(Baoshan University;Yunnan Academy of Governance)

机构地区：[1]保山学院经济管理学院 [2]保山学院大数据学院 [3]云南行政学院

出　　处：《国际经济合作》2024年第3期13-24,91,共13页Journal of International Economic Cooperation

基　　金：国家社会科学基金西部项目“中国与东南亚国家协同推进现代化的路径及策略研究”(编号:23XGJ011)。

摘　　要：粮食和能源安全是全球发展领域最紧迫的挑战,东盟是中国重要的农产品进口来源地。研究采用随机前沿引力模型,研究中国自东盟农产品进口贸易效率的影响因素,测度进口贸易潜力,并重点关注中国粮食安全指标对农产品进口效率的影响。研究发现,粮食安全指标对农产品进口效率没有显著促进作用,但对植物产品进口效率具有显著促进作用;粮食安全和“一带一路”倡议的叠加对农产品和植物产品进口效率均有显著促进作用。在此基础上,分析其政策含义并通过贸易潜力测算,可将东盟国家划分为观察区、重点区和核心区,有针对性加强与重点区国家的贸易合作。The most urgent challenges in the realm of global development lie in ensuring food and energy security.The Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)is an important source of imported agricultural products for China.Targeted at China’s import trade of agricultural products from ASEAN,this paper adopts the stochastic frontier gravity model to investigate the factors influencing its efficiency and measure its potential.It also focuses on the impact of China’s food security indicators on the efficiency of the above-mentioned import.The study finds that a significant contribution to the import efficiency brought by food security indicators is only available to plant products but not to agricultural products.However,the interaction of food security and the Belt and Road Initiative has a positive impact on the import of both plant products and agricultural products.On this basis,this paper analyzes the policy implications and divides ASEAN countries into three areas after estimating trade potential:observation area,key area,and core area,and puts forward that China should enhance trade cooperation with countries in the key area.

关 键 词：粮食安全 中国—东盟关系 农产品 贸易潜力 随机前沿引力模型 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]