A Tutorial Review of the Solar Power Curve: Regressions, Model Chains, and Their Hybridization and Probabilistic Extensions  

作　　者：Dazhi YANG Xiang’ao XIA Martin János MAYER 

机构地区：[1]School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150001,Heilongjiang,China [2]Key Laboratory for Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation(LAGEO),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [3]Department of Energy Engineering,Faculty of Mechanical Engineering,Budapest University of Technology and Economics,Műegyetem rkp.3,Budapest H-1111,Hungary

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2024年第6期1023-1067,共45页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(project no.42375192),and the China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Special Program(CMA-CCSP;project no.QBZ202315);supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(project no.42030608);supported by the National Research,Development and Innovation Fund,project no.OTKA-FK 142702;by the Hungarian Academy of Sciences through the Sustainable Development and Technologies National Programme(FFT NP FTA)and the János Bolyai Research Scholarship.

摘　　要：Owing to the persisting hype in pushing toward global carbon neutrality,the study scope of atmospheric science is rapidly expanding.Among numerous trending topics,energy meteorology has been attracting the most attention hitherto.One essential skill of solar energy meteorologists is solar power curve modeling,which seeks to map irradiance and auxiliary weather variables to solar power,by statistical and/or physical means.In this regard,this tutorial review aims to deliver a complete overview of those fundamental scientific and engineering principles pertaining to the solar power curve.Solar power curves can be modeled in two primary ways,one of regression and the other of model chain.Both classes of modeling approaches,alongside their hybridization and probabilistic extensions,which allow accuracy improvement and uncertainty quantification,are scrutinized and contrasted thoroughly in this review.

关 键 词：review energy meteorology solar power curve model chain solar power prediction 

分 类 号：TK51[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程]