Evaluation and Projection of Population Exposure to Temperature Extremes over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei Region Using a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model RegCM4 Ensemble  

作　　者：Peihua QIN Zhenghui XIE Rui HAN Buchun LIU 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [2]Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences(CAAS),Beijing 100081,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2024年第6期1132-1146,共15页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42075162);the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2019YFA0606903);the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility”(EarthLab).

摘　　要：Temperature extremes over rapidly urbanizing regions with high population densities have been scrutinized due to their severe impacts on human safety and economics.First of all,the performance of the regional climate model RegCM4 with a hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic dynamic core in simulating seasonal temperature and temperature extremes was evaluated over the historical period of 1991–99 at a 12-km spatial resolution over China and a 3-km resolution over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei(JJJ)region,a typical urban agglomeration of China.Simulations of spatial distributions of temperature extremes over the JJJ region using RegCM4 with hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic cores showed high spatial correlations of more than 0.8 with the observations.Under a warming climate,temperature extremes of annual maximum daily temperature(TXx)and summer days(SU)in China and the JJJ region showed obvious increases by the end of the 21st century while there was a general reduction in frost days(FD).The ensemble of RegCM4 with different land surface components was used to examine population exposure to temperature extremes over the JJJ region.Population exposure to temperature extremes was found to decrease in 2091−99 relative to 1991−99 over the majority of the JJJ region due to the joint impacts of increases in temperature extremes over the JJJ and population decreases over the JJJ region,except for downtown areas.Furthermore,changes in population exposure to temperature extremes were mainly dominated by future population changes.Finally,we quantified changes in exposure to temperature extremes with temperature increase over the JJJ region.This study helps to provide relevant policies to respond future climate risks over the JJJ region.

关 键 词：CMIP6 convection-permitting population exposure RegCM4 temperature extremes 

分 类 号：R12[医药卫生—环境卫生学] P423[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]