Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina  

作　　者：Bin TANG Wenting HU Anmin DUAN Yimin LIU Wen BAO Yue XIN Xianyi YANG 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [2]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 101408,China [3]State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science,College of Ocean and Earth Sciences,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China [4]Chinese Academy of Sciences,the CAS Institutes of Science and Development,Beijing 101408,China [5]School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 101408,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2024年第6期1184-1200,I0022-I0034,共30页大气科学进展（英文版）

摘　　要：Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South China and Indochina(INCSC)in recent decades.Given the areas with large gross domestic product(GDP)in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming,understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(RX5day)and the maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)is critical for adaptation planning in this region.Based on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP5-8.5)are investigated.Results indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region,while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global warming.The changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region,rather than the change of GDP.If only considering the effect of climate change on GDP,the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Guangdong,and Hainan in South China,as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in Indochina.Thus,timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these regions.Moreover,from the sub-regional average viewpoint,over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.

关 键 词：CMIP6 heavy precipitation extreme drought South China INDOCHINA economic impact 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] F125[经济管理—世界经济] F113