土地制度综合配套改革能否驱动城乡要素流动:理论逻辑与实证检验  

Can the Comprehensive Reform of the Land System Drive the Flow of Urban and Rural Factors:Theoretical Logic and Empirical Testing

作　　者：李聪 蒋妍[2] LI Cong;JIANG Yan

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心,北京100872

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2024年第6期73-89,共17页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“中国农地制度变迁的微观机制研究:动态变迁模型的构建与检验”(72174202),项目负责人:丰雷;教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“中国农村土地制度与配套制度协同演进机制研究——基于制度互补视角”(21YJA630014),项目负责人:丰雷;中国人民大学科学研究基金项目“城乡融合发展的土地制度改革创新研究——基于多元协同治理视角”(21XNL003),项目负责人:丰雷。

摘　　要：稀缺资源优化配置的必要途径都是流动和转让,土地制度综合配套改革为城乡要素流动奠定了基础。基于2005—2021年31个省(区、市)级的宏观数据,采用系统动力学建模和联立方程模型实证分析了土地制度综合配套改革对城乡要素流动的影响。结果显示:(1)土地制度综合配套的实质是在土地与户籍制度之间通过权利开放,塑造土地、劳动力基本权利向发展权利过渡的正向反馈关系。(2)土地制度综合配套改革有助于促进土地流转和劳动力转移。(3)土地流转与劳动力转移之间具有显著的正向互动效应。在调整数据样本、重新设定模型后,研究结论依然稳健。另外,土地流转与劳动力转移之间的互动效应具有显著的区域异质性,相较于西部地区,东中部地区的农村劳动力转移与土地流转具有彼此促进的联动效应。根据研究结论提出沿着权利开放的改革进路,健全土地、劳动力等要素的权利联系,保障转移劳动力在城市中的生存与发展权益以及农民土地权益等政策建议。The necessary ways to optimize the allocation of scarce resources are through flow and transfer.The comprehensive reform of the rural land system has laid the foundation for the flow of urban and rural factors.Based on the macro data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)from 2005 to 2021,this research uses the system dynamics modeling and simultaneous equation models to empirically analyze the impact of the comprehensive supporting reform of the rural land system on the flow of urban and rural factors.The results show that:(1)The essence of the comprehensive supporting land system is to open up rights between land and household registration systems to form a positive cycle of transition from basic rights to land and labor to development rights.(2)The comprehensive supporting reform of the land system can help promote land circulation and labor transfer.(3)There is a significant positive interaction effect between land transfer and labor transfer.After adjusting the data sample and resetting the model,the research conclusion remains robust.In addition,the interactive effect between land transfer and labor transfer has significant regional heterogeneity.Compared with the western region,rural labor transfer and land transfer in the eastern and central regions have a linkage effect that promotes each other.Based on the research conclusions,policy recommendations are put forward to follow the reform approach of liberalizing rights,improving the rights relationship between land,labor,and other factors,and protecting the survival and development rights of migrant laborers in cities as well as farmers'land rights and interests.

关 键 词：土地制度综合配套改革 城乡要素流动 系统动力学 联立方程模型 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]