基于普查数据的中国省际人口迁移网络演化分析  

China's Interprovincial Migration Network Evolution Based on Census Data

作　　者：柏桐 马胜春 钱小宇 魏传华[1] BAI Tong;MA Shengchun;QIAN Xiaoyu;WEI Chuanhua(School of Science,Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081,China;School of Management,Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学理学院,北京100081 [2]中央民族大学管理学院,北京100081

出　　处：《中央民族大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第2期81-87,共7页Journal of Minzu University of China(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BTJ005)。

摘　　要：中国省际人口迁移问题一直以来被广泛关注,研究其特点及变化规律对我国经济社会发展具有重要意义。为此,本文基于第五次、第六次和第七次这三次全国人口普查数据,利用社会网络分析方法,构建了中国省际人口迁移无权有向网络,并计算网络基本拓扑性质、进行节点重要性和凝聚子群分析。研究发现,中国各省之间人口迁移关系越来越紧密,网络的“小世界”现象有上升趋势;东部地区人口吸引力持续保持,但近几年北京市等特大城市人口迁入有所放缓,广东省对于人口迁移一直有较强的吸纳作用,东北地区人口外流现象愈发严重。中部地区和西部地区近几年人口回流现象较为明显,我国各地区经济发展水平趋于均衡化,2015年后各子群间迁移关系明显增多。The issue of population migration in China has long always of widespread concern and the study of its development patterns is of great importance to China's economic and social development.Therefore,using the fifth,sixth,and seventh national census data,the unweighted directed network and weighted directed network are constructed to explore the basic topological properties of the net work and implement node importance and cohesive subgroups analysis.The results show that:migration relationships between provinces are getting closer and closer,and the phenomenon of"small worlds"in China's interprovincial migration networks is on the rise;the population attraction of the eastern region continues to be strong.However,in recent years,population migration in Beijing and other megacities has slowed down,and Guangdong province effectively controls population migration.The northeastern regions are facing the increasingly severe predicament of population loss.In recent years,the phenomenon of population backflow has become more pronounced in the western and central regions.Moreover,the level of economic development in various regions of China has tended.After 2015,migration relationships between the subgroups have increased dramatically.

关 键 词：社会网络 人口迁移 网络数据 人口普查 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计]