RCEP生效对中国农产品出口效应的影响——基于新边际的视角  

The Effect of RCEP on China's Agricultural Exports:Based on the Perspective of New Margin

作　　者：李坤望[1] 丛聪 LI Kunwang;CONG Cong(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《山西大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第3期115-122,共8页Journal of Shanxi University(Philosophy and Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“交通基础设施联通对‘一带一路’沿线国家经济影响的评估:分析框架与模拟分析”(72073075)。

摘　　要：区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)生效标志着全球规模最大的自由贸易协定的诞生,区域内近90%的农产品可立刻或在未来实现零关税贸易,这将为我国农产品出口贸易发展带来较大增长。研究采用新的衡量贸易边际的方法,建立了一个预测自由贸易协定签订对贸易流量影响的新方法来评估加入RCEP对我国农产品出口贸易流量的影响。研究发现:首先,RCEP生效将带动我国农产品各细分行业的出口增长,不同行业的出口增速具有差异性,最少贸易产品占比高的农产品行业出口增长较快;其次,我国对不同成员国的出口增长率不尽相同,整体来看,相较于其他成员国,我国出口至韩国的农产品出口增长更快。研究结果将有助于理解RCEP签订对我国农产品细分行业的具体意义,为我国对外贸易政策和农业产业政策调整提供参照。RCEP entered into force on January 1,2022,marking the birth of the world's largest free trade agreement.Nearly 90 percent of agricultural products in the region can be tariff-free trade immediately or in the future.This will bring greater growth to the development of China's agricultural export trade.This paper adopts a new method to measure trade margin,and establishes a new model that predicts the effect of RCEP on the trade flows to assess the impact of accession to RCEP on China's agricultural export trade flows.We find that:Firstly,RCEP will drive the export growth of all segments of agricultural products in China,with the differences in export growth rate of different industries and faster export growth of the agricultural industries with the high proportion of the least traded products;Secondly,the growth rate of China's exports to different member countries is not the same.On the whole,compared with other member countries,the growth rates of exports to South Korea and Japan are faster.The research results of this paper will help to understand the benefits of accession to RCEP to China's segmented indus-tries and provide reference for the adjustment of China's foreign trade policy and agricultural industry policy.

关 键 词：RCEP 最少贸易产品 农产品 出口增长 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]