基于CMIP6的气候变化下资水流域径流响应研究  

Study on Runoff Response of Zishui Basin Under Climate Change Based on CMIP6

作　　者：隆院男[1,2] 张雨林 蒋昌波 莫军成[3] 黄春福 宋昕熠 Long Yuannan;Zhang Yulin;Jiang Changbo;Mo Juncheng;Huang Chunfu;Song Xinyi(School of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China;Key Laboratory of Dongting Lake Aquatic Eco-Environmental Control and Restoration of Hunan Province,Changsha 410114,China;Hunan Water Resources&Hydropower Survey,Design,Planning and Research Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410007,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学水利与环境工程学院,长沙410114 [2]洞庭湖水环境治理与生态修复湖南省重点实验室,长沙410114 [3]湖南省水利水电勘测设计规划研究总院有限公司,长沙410007

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2024年第4期114-125,共12页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52079010);湖南省重点研发计划(2020SK2130);湖南省研究生科研创新资助项目(CX20220910);湖南省水利科技项目(XSKJ2019081-09)。

摘　　要：[目的]探究未来气候变化情景下资水流域的径流响应情况,为实现流域可持续发展、制定防洪抗旱决策提供科学支持。[方法]基于3个CMIP6全球气候模式,通过构建流域SDSM降尺度模型和SWAT水文模型,预估了SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5气候情景下资水流域2030—2089年的气温与降水变化,并进一步探究流域径流对气候变化的响应。[结果]未来资水流域呈较显著暖湿化趋势,空间上流域全范围升温且以新宁、邵阳站附近增幅最大;降水增加区域主要集中在以冷水江为中心的中下游地区,减少区域位于洞口站以西。在此背景下,未来桃江站与邵阳站年均径流与流域降水的变化趋势基本一致,邵阳站以上的上游区域可利用水资源量减小的可能性较大。枯水期流域水资源将面临更加紧缺的风险,且汛期有提前的趋势,主汛期水资源分配的均匀程度将上升。[结论]在气候暖湿化的背景下,资水流域水资源管理将遭遇更严峻的挑战,应加强水资源保护和流域综合管理。[Objective]The aims of this study are to explore the runoff response of Zishui Basin under future climate change scenarios,and to provide scientific support for the sustainable development of the basin and the decision-making of flood control and drought control.[Methods]Based on three CMIP6 global climate models,the SDSM downscaling model and SWAT hydrological model were constructed to predict the changes of temperature and precipitation in the Zishui Basin during 2030—2089 under SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios,and to further explore the response of runoff to climate change.[Results]Zishui Basin will present a significant warming and humidification trend in the future,and this trend will increase with the increase of discharge scenario.Spatially,the temperature rise of the whole basin is the largest in the vicinity of Xinning and Shaoyang stations.The increasing areas of precipitation mainly concentrate in the middle and lower reaches with Lengshuijiang as the center,while the decreasing area is located west of Dongkou station.In this context,the future annual runoff of Taojiang station and Shaoyang station will have the same variation trend with the watershed precipitation,and the amount of available water resources in the upstream area above Shaoyang station is more likely to decrease.Water resources in the basin will face the risk of more shortage in the dry season,and the flood season tends to advance,and the evenness of water resources allocation in the main flood season will increase.[Conclusion]Under the background of climate warming and humidification,the management of water resources in Zishui Basin will encounter more severe challenges,and the protection of water resources and the integrated management of Zishui Basin should be strengthened.

关 键 词：CMIP6 气候变化 径流响应 资水流域 SDSM模型 SWAT模型 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学] P467[水利工程—水文学及水资源]