青藏高原土壤侵蚀对气候变化和生态政策的非线性响应  

Nonlinear Response of Soil Erosion in the Tibetan Plateau to Cliamte Change and Ecological Policies

作　　者：刘悦俊 程江浩 张燕杰 Liu Yuejun;Cheng Jianghao;Zhang Yanjie(College of Agricultural and Biological Sciences,Dali University,Dali,Yunnan 671003,China;Co-Innovation Center for Cangshan Mountain and Erhai Lake Integrated Protect and Green Development of Yunnan Province,Dali University,Dali,Yunnan 671003,China)

机构地区：[1]大理大学农学与生物科学学院,云南大理671003 [2]苍山洱海一体化保护与流域绿色发展云南省高校协同创新中心大理大学,云南大理671003

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2024年第4期126-134,共9页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(项目号:42101292);大理大学博士科研启动费项目(项目号:KYBS2021071)。

摘　　要：[目的]评估土壤侵蚀的时空变化趋势,揭示驱动因素对其贡献,阐明生态恢复政策对其产生的影响,为青藏高原土壤侵蚀治理提供科学依据。[方法]评估青藏高原1990—2020年土壤水力侵蚀量,分析其时空变化趋势,并基于随机森林回归模型探讨气候、人为和地形因素对土壤侵蚀的影响。[结果](1)1990—2020年青藏高原平均土壤侵蚀模数为305.78 t/km^(2),80%以上的区域属于微度侵蚀。土壤侵蚀的年际变化呈现先减后增的趋势,1990—2010年青藏高原的土壤侵蚀有所改善,2010—2020年的土壤侵蚀状况有所加重,呈非线性变化。(2)气候因素对土壤侵蚀的影响超过了人为因素,年降水量是青藏高原土壤侵蚀的主要驱动因素。此外,2010年后人为因素对土壤侵蚀的影响逐渐增加。[结论]气候因素是青藏高原土壤侵蚀的主要驱动因素,2010年后青藏高原实施的生态恢复政策初见成效,且随机森林回归可以很好地进行土壤侵蚀驱动因素的探究。[Objective]The aims of this study are to evaluate the spatiotemporal trends of soil erosion,to reveal the contributions of driving factors,to elucidate the impacts of ecological restoration policies,and to provide a scientific basis for the management of soil erosion on the Tibetan Plateau.[Methods]This study assessed the temporal and spatial characteristics of soil erosion by water on the Tibetan Plateau from 1990 to 2020,and identified the contribution of climatic,anthropogenic and topographic factors to soil erosion by Random Forest Regression.[Results](1)The average soil erosion rate on the Tibetan Plateau was 305.78 t/km^(2),and more than 80%of the area was slightly erosion during 1990—2020.Soil erosion decreased before 2010 and increased after 2010,showing a nonlinear variation.(2)Climate factors had a greater impact on soil erosion than anthropogenic factors in the Tibetan Plateau,and annual precipitation was the main factor on soil erosion.In addition,since 2010,the influence of anthropogenic factors on soil erosion gradually increased.[Conclusion]Climate factors are the primary driving force inducing soil erosion in the Tibetan Plateau.The ecological restoration policies implemented in the Tibetan Plateau have initially achieved results,but the impact of climate change on soil erosion is more significant.Additionally,Random Forest Regression is effective for exploring the driving factors on soil erosion.

关 键 词：土壤侵蚀 气候变化 人类活动 随机森林回归模型 青藏高原 

分 类 号：S157.1[农业科学—土壤学]