基于标准化降水指数(SPI)的宁夏中部干旱带旱灾危险性时空演变特征  

Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Drought Hazard in the Middle Arid Zone of Ningxia Based on Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)

作　　者：丛士翔 王融融 常文静 余海龙[1] 黄菊莹[2] Cong Shixiang;Wang Rongrong;Chang Wenjing;Yu Hailong;Huang Juying(School of Geography and Planning,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China;School of Ecology and Environment,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学地理科学与规划学院,银川750021 [2]宁夏大学生态环境学院,银川750021

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2024年第4期223-232,共10页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：宁夏自然科学基金“干湿交替对藻结皮生理和生态的影响”(2022AAC03120);国家自然科学基金“灌丛沙堆演化过程中树干茎流与根区优先流对‘沃岛效应’的影响”(41961001)。

摘　　要：[目的]揭示宁夏中部干旱带旱灾危险性的时空特征,为宁夏中部干旱带农业生产、农业灾害防治、种植结构调整和农业灌溉指导提供科学依据。[方法]收集宁夏中部干旱带的沙坡头区、中宁县、同心县、盐池县、海原县5个气象站点的气象观测资料,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)分析了近39年(1981—2019年)干旱等级的时空变化,并结合GIS技术评价其旱灾危险性时空演变特征。[结果]SPI 12结果表明代际干旱趋势呈波动中加剧趋势(趋势线斜率范围为-0.004~0.003)。SPI 3结果表明季尺度旱灾危险性时空分布异质性明显,空间上呈现出南低北高的特征,而时间上则表现为连旱特征突出。春冬两季旱灾发生频率高于45%;夏、秋两季干旱现象不显著,干旱发生频率处于10.26%~43.59%之间;旱灾危险性时空演变特征评价结果表明代际旱灾危险性呈现先下降后上升的变化趋势。季尺度旱灾危险性时空差异明显,空间上表现为旱灾危险性由南向北升高,时间上表现为春冬两季旱灾危险性较高,而夏、秋两季旱灾危险性较低。[结论]宁夏中部干旱带季尺度旱灾危险性时空异质性明显,沙坡头区、中宁县旱灾危险性高,未来应加强春、秋、冬三季的旱灾防治。[Objective]The aims of this study are to reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought risk in the central arid zone of Ningxia,and to provide scientific basis for agricultural production,agricultural disaster prevention and control,planting structure adjustment and agricultural irrigation guidance in the central arid zone of Ningxia.[Method]The meteorological observation data of the five meteorological stations including Shapotou,Zhongning County,Tongxin County,Yanchi County,and Haiyuan County in the middle arid zone of Ningxia were collected,and the temporal and spatial variations of drought levels and the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of drought risk over the past 39 years(1981—2019)was analyzed and evaluated by calculating the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)and combining with GIS technology.[Results]The SPI 12 results revealed a fluctuating trend with an intensifying tendency in decennial droughts(the slope of the trend line ranged from-0.004 to 0.003).The SPI 3 results demonstrated a significant spatial heterogeneity in the spatial-temporal distribution of seasonal drought risk featured with a prominent characteristics of a low risk in the south and high risk in the north at spatial scales,and continuous drought at temporal scales.The frequencies of drought in spring and winter exceeded 45%.However,the occurrence of drought in summer and autumn was not significant,with a frequency ranging from 10.26%to 43.59%.The evaluation of the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of drought risk revealed a fluctuating trend of decennial drought risk,initially decreased and then increased.There were remarkable differences in the spatial-temporal distribution of seasonal drought risk,with a characteristic of increasing risk from south to north spatially and higher risk in spring and winter temporally but lower risk in summer and autumn.[Conclusion]The spatial and temporal heterogeneity of seasonal-scale drought risk in the central arid zone of Ningxia is obvious,with high drought

关 键 词：旱灾 标准化降水指数(SPI) 宁夏中部干旱带 时空演变特征 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]