近30年来黄土高原山洪灾害风险时空变化及成因  

Changes and Causes of Mountain Torrent Disaster Risk on the Loess Plateau in the Past 30 Years

作　　者：孙珑 江曦 韩剑桥[1,2] 刘仪航 Sun Long;Jiang Xi;Han Jianqiao;Liu Yihang(Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,CAS&MWR,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100 [2]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2024年第4期241-247,257,共8页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：黄河水科学研究联合基金重点项目(U2243212);国家自然科学基金(42177327);中国科学院国际伙伴计划(16146KYSB20200001);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022093)。

摘　　要：[目的]揭示近30年黄土高原山洪灾害风险时空演变特征及其影响机制,为黄土高原山洪灾害宏观防控策略制定提供科学依据。[方法]基于降雨、植被覆盖、人口密度等数据建立山洪灾害风险评估体系,集成GIS和层次分析法(AHP)等方法,在绘制各驱动因子风险分布图的基础上,综合评估了黄土高原1990年和2020年的山洪灾害风险。[结果](1)黄土高原山洪灾害高风险区主要集中在东部、南部和东南部地区,这些区域具有降雨强度大、人口密集、经济发达、耕地面积大等特点。(2)1990—2020年期间,黄土高原总体山洪灾害风险增加,表现为风险高的区域在原来的基础上向其四周拓展,其中山西省东南部、青海省西北部、内蒙古东北部最为明显。[结论]近30年来,增加的降雨强度、人口密度和GDP是山洪灾害风险增加的主要驱动因素,需要持续加强对极端降雨引发山洪灾害的防控。[Objective]The aims of this study are to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of mountain torrent disaster risk and its influencing mechanism on the Loess Plateau over the past 30 years,and to provide a scientific basis for the development of comprehensive prevention and control strategies for mountain torrent disasters on the Loess Plateau.[Methods]Based on the data of rainfall,vegetation cover,population density and so on,the risk assessment system of mountain torrent disaster was established.By integrating GIS and analytic hierarchy process(AHP),the mountain torrent disaster risks on the Loess Plateau in 1990 and 2020 were comprehensively evaluated based on the risk distribution map of each driving factor.[Results](1)The high-risk areas were mainly distributed in the southwest,south and east of the Loess Plateau.These areas had the characteristics of high rainfall intensity,dense population,developed economy and large cultivated land area.(2)During the period from 1990 to 2020,the overall risks of mountain torrent disasters on the Loess Plateau increased,showing that the areas with high risk expanded to its surroundings on the original basis,among which the southeast of Shanxi Province,the northwest of Qinghai Province and the northeast of Inner Mongolia were the most obvious.[Conclusion]The increased rainfall intensity,population density and GDP are the main driving factors on the increase of mountain torrent disaster risks in the past 30 years.It is necessary to continuously strengthen the prevention and control of mountain torrent disasters caused by extreme rainfall.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 风险评估 时空变化 黄土高原 

分 类 号：P954[天文地球—自然地理学]