黄河流域土地生态安全时空演化分析及预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Land Ecological Security in Yellow River Basin

作　　者：吴艳霞 邱乐 Wu Yanxia;Qiu Le(School of Economics and Management,Xi′an University of Technology,Xi′an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学经济与管理学院,西安710054

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2024年第4期258-265,共8页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“新发展阶段黄河流域生态安全评估、预警及实现机制研究”(21BJY169)。

摘　　要：[目的]揭示黄河流域土地生态安全时空演化特征并厘清其演绎规律,助力黄河流域加快生态文明建设发展进程。[方法]基于2012—2021年统计数据,选取黄河流域58市州为研究单元,通过PSR模型构建指标评价体系,采用熵权TOPSIS法评价了黄河流域土地生态安全时空演绎规律,运用莫兰指数揭示其空间自相关问题,最后运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)探究了其未来趋势。[结果](1)时间序列演化上,黄河流域土地生态安全整体水平不高但呈现逐年向好的发展态势,10年间经历了从“敏感级”向“良好级”的提升;(2)空间格局演化上,黄河流域土地生态安全呈现“大杂居,小聚集”的特征,始终表现出“下游最优、中游次之、上游最差”的阶梯状分布格局;(3)黄河流域土地生态安全存在明显空间正相关,集聚特征显著,高值区主要分布于下游山东、河南的部分地区,低值区主要分布中上游青海、甘肃、陕西部分地区;(4)2022—2025年土地生态安全水平将保持平稳上升,土地生态安全等级将保持在“良好级”。[结论]黄河流域土地生态安全水平持续向好发展,但整体水平不高,流域沿线地区应持续促进土地生态系统治理与联合保护。[Objective]The aims of this study are to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of land ecological security in the Yellow River Basin,to clarify its deductive law,and to help accelerate the construction and development of ecological civilization in the Yellow River Basin.[Methods]Based on the statistical data from 2012 to 2021,58 cities in the Yellow River Basin were selected as the research unit,system of evaluation index was established,integrated entropy weight TOPSIS method and Moran index were used to explore the temporal and spatial evolution law,and grey prediction GM(1,1)model was used to explore future trend.[Results](1)In terms of time,the whole level of land ecological security was not high in Yellow River Basin,but showed a trend of good development year by year,and experienced an improvement from‘sensitive level’to‘good level’.(2)From the spatial distribution point of view,the land ecological security presented the characteristics of‘large cohabitation and small aggregation’,which always showed a step-shaped distribution pattern of‘the highest level in downstream was,the medium level in the middle reaches,and the lowest level in upper reaches’.(3)The land ecological security of the Yellow River Basin had obvious positive correlation in space and significant agglomeration characteristics.Locally,the high safety values(H-H)were clustered in Shandong and Henan,the low safety value are clustered in Qinghai,Gansu and Shaanxi of the middle and upper reaches.(4)From^(2)022 to 2025,the land ecological security level will maintain a steady rise,and the land ecological security level will remain at‘good level’.[Conclusion]The level of land ecological security in the Yellow River Basin continues to improve,but the overall level is not high,and land ecosystem governance and joint protection in the areas along the basin should be continually promoted.

关 键 词：土地生态安全评价 黄河流域 熵权TOPSIS模型 灰色预测GM(1 1) 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济] X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]